Trump's Asia visit will be no walk in the park

U.S. President Donald Trump began his Asian tour on the golf course today, playing a friendly game with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. But the rest of Trump's trip isn't likely to be nearly as breezy.

In fact, with the threat of North Korea's nuclear weapons program casting a long shadow, the U.S. faces plenty of hazards. And Trump arrives with his own handicap.

He's widely seen as unpredictable, impulsive and hotheaded, while many see his country as a fading power … putting America first and leaving Asia behind.

The trip is not only the longest foreign visit for this novice president, it's most ambitious Asian tour for any U.S. leader in more than a decade. Over 12 days, Trump will visit China, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and the Philippines. He'll be tested at two major international conferences.

And at every stop, his goal will be to convince "all nations to do more" to pressure Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear ambitions, according to U.S. national security adviser Lt. Gen. H. R. McMaster. He says that's the number one priority.

China will be the main target of the message. Washington believes Beijing still has unused leverage over its ideological ally. China has tightened economic sanctions against North Korea — stopping coal imports, capping oil exports and restricting financial transactions — but it is still by far Pyongyang's main trading partner.

Trump wants more from China

Trump has criticized, cajoled and threatened Beijing in speeches and Twitter messages, in an attempt to get President Xi Jinping to exert more influence. He will try again in person this week, but aside from a polite welcome, Trump is unlikely to walk away with much.

Xi believes "China has done almost all it can to pressure North Korea," says Zhao Tong from the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center in Beijing.

Beyond that, says Zhao, "deep distrust between Washington and Beijing is preventing China from cooperating more substantively with the United States." Beijing worries the U.S. is too willing to risk a nuclear war on China's doorstep, while not trying hard enough to find a diplomatic solution.

There have been whispers of secret, back-channel contact between Washington and Pyongyang, but little progress.

Meanwhile, plenty of sabre-rattling.

Trump has threatened to rain "fire and fury" on North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, who he dismissively calls "rocket man."

North Korean aggression ahead of Trump's visit

Kim is building nuclear missiles designed to hit the United States, and experts say he may well be on the verge of having that capability. Trump has shouted back, "we will have no choice but to totally destroy North Korea."

Last Friday, American B-1B bombers buzzed North Korea's coast and no fewer than three aircraft carriers are now descending on the region as Trump arrives. That's the biggest show of U.S. firepower around here since 2011.

But militarily, it's hard for Washington to go much farther without risking war — and massive retaliatory attacks on U.S. allies South Korea and Japan.

With Seoul just 60 kilometres from the North Korean border — and from Kim's big, conventional artillery — South Korean President Moon Jae-in has been more cautious than Trump, supporting the 28,500-strong U.S. force in his country but urging conciliation with the North.

Moon and Trump will smile and get along because they need each other, but they don't see eye to eye. Moon has repeatedly asked the U.S. for assurances that there will be no military attack against North Korea without the South's approval, and he says Washington has reassured him.

Still, many in Seoul aren't entirely sure they believe it.

"As a country that relies on all aspects of national defence on the U.S., our ability to veto the U.S.'s decision would be slim to none," says South Korean National Assembly Member Kim Jong-dae. "Besides, we cannot predict Trump."

Trump has further strained the relationship by threatening to cancel a U.S.-South Korean free trade agreement, apparently ignoring calls for closer co-operation with this key ally and trading partner.

Trade with China is on the agenda

Trade is a point of friction with other countries on Trump's agenda as well, many still disappointed at the U.S.' withdrawal from a trade deal that was supposed to bring order to the region's economic relationship with each other, the U.S., and maybe, China. Trump pulled out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership soon after taking office.

His main trade argument is with China.

Trump will arrive in Beijing complaining about the country's growing trade surplus with the United States. Since 1986, there hasn't been a month where China didn't sell more to the U.S. than it bought. The surplus sits at $273.8 billion US so far this year.

That's triggered more outraged tweets alleging unfairness from Trump, but a former U.S. Treasury representative to China and World Bank official says the trade surplus is not the issue.

"Economists don't pay much attention to that," says David Dollar. "In relation to China's GDP, it's actually come down a lot."

The "more pernicious" issue, says Dollar, is Beijing's barriers to U.S. and other foreign companies to invest and do business in China. That's another problem Trump is expected to raise with Xi.

Among all the G20 countries, China is "the most restrictive in terms of allowing foreign investment," says Dollar.

While China will likely make vague promises about opening up — the kind Dollar used to hear while stationed in Beijing, and the kind Xi made at the Communist Party's recent congress — he doesn't expect much action. "The U.S. will continue to be frustrated," he says.

Indeed China doesn't think it needs to do much more, says Qingguo Jia, the Dean of Peking University's School of International Studies. And he doesn't think Trump's threats amount to much.

"The relationship on trade is much better than a lot of people had expected," he says.

He points to Trump's promises to go after China, calling it a "currency manipulator," and to impose a 45 per cent tariff on Chinese goods as soon as he became president. Neither happened.

"If you follow the rhetoric of Trump during the campaign," says Jia, "we would have a trade war already. But so far, so good."