Trump's key to victory in the U.S. election? Men who hate politics
To reach male voters, Republican candidate hangs out on podcasts talking boxing, golf and cocaine benders
Why would Donald Trump devote valuable campaign time to talking with podcast hosts about cocaine benders, golf swings and boxing legends?
The strategy driving this is no secret. Trump's campaign has acknowledged what it sees as a key to victory on Nov. 5: Turning out politically apathetic men.
His team believes there's a goldmine of votes to be tapped among men, especially young men, who dislike politicians and aren't keen on voting. But if they do happen to cast a ballot, they'd prefer Trump.
Reaching these men is step one. Trump's campaign co-manager shed light on this during the Republican summer convention. Chris LaCivita lamented the low turnout levels among gun-owners, and talked about scolding his own hunting buddies for not voting.
"What the hell are you doing?" LaCivita said, referring to his friends. "You've gotta show up."
The math here is simple: Most polls show Trump with a solid lead among male voters, while trailing badly among women. Some polls, though not all, even show him gaining ground among young men. If he turns out more men, the thinking goes, it could clinch a close election.
It's a concern weighing on Democrats.
The volunteer demographic
At party headquarters in one North Carolina county, volunteers marvelled at the explosion in enthusiasm since Kamala Harris entered the race, with exponentially more people now knocking doors and making calls.
But there's a caveat. During a break from phone-banking, one woman remarked that most volunteers looked like her: female professionals, middle aged and older.
"There's been a lot of influx of, sort of, my demographic of volunteers," said Jane Brody, a commercial realtor in Buncombe County, N.C.
"I think we need all different kinds of volunteers. Young people, men, veterans."
She's struggling to understand why Trump may be appealing to more young male voters than he did in 2020. After all, she says, they tell pollsters they also care about abortion rights, as boyfriends, husbands and brothers.
Young men may be more right leaning
On a college campus a couple of hours east, a young conservative activist insists there's more support for Trump's ideas here than most realize.
Asked for an example, Matthew Kingsley mentions the Gaza protests this past spring. He would counter-protest by holding up an American flag nearby, and says some male students would discreetly encourage him.
"I would have people come up to me and say, 'Thank you,' " said the 20-year-old engineering student at the University of North Carolina in Charlotte.
"They're not willing to come out about their political views. But they are more right-leaning."
To be clear: Being a Republican remains, as Kingsley concedes, a minority view on college campuses. But even small Trump gains within that group could change the election.
Some Harris supporters reflected on the gender gap while chatting outside a rally in North Carolina last week, her first since delivering a strong debate performance.
Abortion makes voting 'more personal' to women
Tausha Forney, a curriculum planner for non-profit groups, says she hasn't seen crowds like this for a Democrat since Barack Obama won this state in 2008, but she says she's "a little iffy" about male turnout.
She says she's counting on women to convince male relatives and partners to turn out for Harris.
Katelyn Guidry, a University of North Carolina student, believes young women are just more vocal, especially after Trump-appointed judges pared back abortion rights (North Carolina now has a 12-week limit).
"For us it's a little more personal," she said. "But I am still seeing the support from my male counterparts."
It's hard to know exactly how wide the gender gap will be on election day.
One well-known political scientist, John Sides, has observed that, when it comes to young voters, polls are all over the map — the New York Times shows a majority of Gen Z men supporting Trump, but other surveys don't, or show a minimal male-female difference.
Talking cocaine binges and boxers
Here's what's undeniable: Trump is foraging for votes in hard-to-reach places.
He's appeared on podcasts that aren't generally political, but have audiences that are young, male, and massive in size.
An episode with comedian Theo Von drew more than 13 million views on YouTube alone, not counting other platforms. For comparison's sake, that's triple the typical TV viewership of Fox News's highest-rated prime-time shows.
Von's questions were mostly softballs like: "Why does the establishment keep trying to sink you?" The only real discussion about policy came when the host praised Trump for his executive order to increase transparency in health insurance prices.
Instead, they talked sports — Trump described watching Muhammad Ali and Joe Frazier fight, then befriending both boxing legends years later.
They also discussed Von's recurring battles with alcohol and cocaine addiction. Trump, who says he's never touched alcohol, drugs or cigarettes, showed curiosity, asking Von what was harder to quit — alcohol or cocaine?
Von said alcohol leads him back to drugs. "It goes downhill pretty quickly," he told Trump. "You're go-karting, racing with hookers and stuff. It gets pretty bad … Cocaine'll turn you into a damn owl, homie."
Trump gaining access to huge audiences
Trump has met several podcasters through a prominent friend, mixed-martial arts impresario Dana White, who introduced him to Von and others.
Mutual friends of White's were on stage at a recent Trump rally: the Nelk Boys, Canadian-American podcasters and entertainers with millions of followers on platforms that churn out ultimate fighting talk, celebrity interviews, pro-right politics and viral content like the demolition of a TV showing Kamala Harris speaking. They've also interviewed Trump a couple of times.
In another recent episode with pro wrestler and entertainer Logan Paul, Trump discussed boxing, family and his relationships with world leaders, including dictators, many with whom he says he's had good relationships.
"I got along with the tough ones," he said. "You had some real weak ones, too. I didn't get along with them as well. It's strange. Must be a personality thing."
It's obvious that Trump is doing these shows because he gains access to huge audiences that are disdainful of politics, says Kathleen Hall Jamieson, a prominent scholar of political communications.
"It's an anti-establishment audience," said the University of Pennsylvania professor and author.
An attempt to mobilize male voters
They might not trust politicians; but they trust their favourite podcast host. And she says hearing Trump chatting amiably with that host creates a bond in a way an ad or traditional news clips don't.
Scholars in her field call it a parasocial relationship, a sense of community between the listener, the host and Trump.
"It's a way of saying, 'I'm like you, prospective voter whose vote I need. So you can trust me. By the way, the hosts you listen to have tacitly endorsed me because they've hosted me. You can trust me'," Hall Jamieson said in an interview.
"These are people who, if they vote, will vote for Trump — or they'll vote for a third-party candidate. But they're not that likely to vote. What he's trying to do is to mobilize them to vote."
And it's no accident these chats avoid policy talk. If they got too serious, she says, the audience would tune out. "This isn't NPR. This isn't PBS NewsHour."
The ultimate prize for Trump, Hall Jamieson says, would be an invite from the No. 1 podcast host on Spotify: Joe Rogan, who is doggedly anti-establishment, frequently conspiratorial, and whose politics sometimes skew conservative, though he's endorsed Bernie Sanders and praised Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
But there's no sign that's imminent, especially after Rogan praised Harris for outfoxing Trump in the debate.
“She’s nailing it.” Joe Rogan raves about Kamala Harris’ campaign and debate performance, and he mocks Donald Trump. (Video: The Joe Rogan Experience) <a href="https://t.co/tnAWPnZlFM">pic.twitter.com/tnAWPnZlFM</a>
—@MikeSingtonThe tale of the T-shirts
Outside the Harris rally in Charlotte, some of the people selling merchandise say they believe Trump may be making real inroads with men, including within the Black community.
"A lot of African-American males are considering Trump," said Randolph Anyanwu, a 28-year-old T-shirt vendor, and son of Nigerian immigrants.
"I don't really sell to males. I sell to women," he said, pointing to the pile of Harris T-shirts on his own table. "The women that are buying them — like 35 and up. Those are [Harris's] real supporters."
Anyanwu says he himself has no plans to vote this year as he dislikes both main candidates. "I'm sitting it out."
But he says Harris's campaign has seen a surge in enthusiasm compared to Joe Biden — based on polling, campaign donations, the number of volunteers and Anyanwu's T-shirt sales, which have soared.
It's also essential to note that the vast majority of Black men are projected to back Harris.
Anyanwu pauses when asked to make a prediction about the election.
"It can go either way," he said, before adding: "I think Kamala will win."
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