U.S. claims Russia has developed elaborate false-flag plot for Ukraine
Alleged scheme includes video featuring staged explosions, actors playing mourners, according to U.S.
The U.S. accused the Kremlin on Thursday of an elaborate plot to fabricate an attack by Ukrainian forces that Russia could use as a pretext to take military action against its neighbour.
Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said the scheme included production of a graphic propaganda video that would show staged explosions and use corpses and actors depicting grieving mourners.
The U.S. has not provided detailed information backing up the claims.
The alleged plan for the fake attack on Russian territory or Russian-speaking people was revealed in declassified intelligence shared with Ukrainian officials and European allies in recent days.
It was the latest example of the Biden administration divulging intelligence findings as a tactic to attempt to stop Russian disinformation efforts and foil what it says is Russian President Vladimir Putin's effort to lay the groundwork for military action. If Russia does invade, administration officials say, the U.S. wants to make clear Russia had always sought to create a pretext.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed the reports from the U.S., according to the TASS news agency, saying similar things had been said previously but amounted to nothing.
In recent weeks, the White House has said that U.S. intelligence shows Russia has launched a social media disinformation campaign against Ukraine and has dispatched operatives trained in explosives to carry out acts of sabotage against Russia's own proxy forces. Britain has divulged intelligence findings that it says show Russia plotting to install a pro-Russian puppet government in Ukraine.
"We've seen these kinds of activity by the Russians in the past, and we believe it's important when we see it like this, and we can, to call it out," Kirby told reporters at the Pentagon.
The administration has repeatedly declined to detail evidence underlying its intelligence findings. State Department spokesman Ned Price said Thursday the administration needed to protect sensitive sources and intelligence-gathering methods.
"We declassify information only when we're confident in that information," he said.
Meanwhile on Thursday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan offered to mediate talks between Russia and Ukraine and NATO warned that Moscow's military buildup continues, with more troops and military equipment deployed to neighbouring Belarus than at any time in the last 30 years.
Erdogan, who has close but sometimes difficult ties with Putin, said Thursday that Turkey was "prepared to undertake its part in order to end the crisis between two friendly nations that are its neighbours in the Black Sea."
"I have stressed that we would be happy to host a summit meeting at a leadership level or technical level talks," Erdogan said after about three hours of talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. "Instead of fuelling the fire, we act with the logical aim of reducing the tensions."
Russia has amassed more than 100,000 troops near Ukraine's northern and eastern borders, raising concern that Moscow might invade again, as it did in 2014. The troop presence and uncertainty have unnerved Ukrainians and hurt the country's economy. Russian officials deny that an invasion is planned.
Zelensky welcomed Erdogan's offer and thanked him for his "firm and consistent" support.
The crisis has put Turkey in a fix, leaving it in a position where it has to balance its growing partnership with Ukraine with its difficult relations with Moscow.
The U.S. said the new intelligence indicates that the Russians would stage military equipment used by Ukraine, including a key weapon supplied by Turkey, a NATO member, to bolster the credibility of a fake attack.
Russia would possibly use Turkish-made Bayraktar drones as part of the fake operation, according to a senior administration official who was not authorized to comment and spoke on the condition of anonymity. The drones have been used by Ukraine against pro-Russia separatists in the Donbas region, a move that angered Moscow, which has made clear it is strongly opposed to Ukraine being equipped with the technology.
Putin and French President Emmanuel Macron spoke again Thursday, their third call in less than a week. The Kremlin said in a statement that they continued a "detailed dialogue about the situation around Ukraine" and said Putin drew Macron's attention to "provocative statements and actions" by the Ukrainian leadership.
Troop movements into Belarus
At NATO headquarters, Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg warned Russian troop numbers in Belarus are likely to climb to 30,000, with the backing of special forces, advanced fighter jets, Iskander short-range ballistic missiles and S-400 ground-to-air missile defence systems.
"Over the last days, we have seen a significant movement of Russian military forces into Belarus. This is the biggest Russian deployment there since the Cold War," Stoltenberg told reporters.
Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu was in Minsk on Thursday, checking on preparations for major Russia-Belarus war games scheduled for Feb. 10 to Feb. 20. Shoigu met with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.
Speaking about the drills, Lukashenko said the goal was "to reinforce the border with Ukraine."
At the same time, Ukraine's defence minister, Oleksii Reznikov, sought again to project calm, saying the probability of an invasion was "low."
He welcomed a change by U.S. officials, who have stopped using the term "imminent" when describing the risk of a Russian attack.
Reznikov said "the threat exists, the risks exist, but they have existed since 2014, ever since Russia has become an aggressor." The minister put the number of Russian troops near Ukraine at 115,000.
Still, Stoltenberg renewed his call for Russia to "de-escalate," and repeated warnings from the West that "any further Russian aggression would have severe consequences and carry a heavy price."
With files from Reuters