As U.S. halts military aid, there is concern in Ukraine amid an effort to repair soured relations
Since Russia invaded, U.S. has allocated nearly $70B in funds for Ukraine's military
As Ukraine tries to repair its fractured relations with the U.S. administration, which abruptly halted military aid to the embattled country on Monday, Kyiv says it will be able to hold the sprawling front line in the ongoing war with Russia.
But those fighting along it are worried by the decisions and tone coming from Washington.
"It's not only weapons, it's a symbol of support," said Roman Kravtsov, a Ukrainian soldier who spoke to CBC News by phone from Ukraine's Sumy region, in the country's northeast near the border with Russia. "When we lose [support], our motivation goes down."
The decision by the United States, which is Ukraine's biggest military backer, is the latest move from the Trump administration as it tries to follow up on its promise to end the war by pressuring Ukraine into peace negotiations, including by attempting to leave it stunted on the battlefield.
The move to block shipments came Monday, three days after a combative exchange in the Oval Office between U.S. President Donald Trump, Vice-President JD Vance and Ukrainian President Voldymyr Zelenskyy, who wanted to see security guarantees included in a deal that would grant the U.S. partial access to Ukraine's minerals.
On Tuesday, hours after the flow of weapons was halted, Zelenskyy called the meeting "regrettable" and said that he "wanted to make things right."
U.S. pulls back, Europe tries to step in
While a halt to U.S. military aid is a major blow, some argue it is likely not a fatal one because Ukraine's own domestic production has surged along with armament shipments from Europe, which is set to hold a special summit devoted to defence and Ukraine on Thursday.
However, if the Trump administration wanted to further pressure Ukraine, experts say there are levers it could pull, such as backing out of reconnaissance and intelligence-sharing arrangements, and disrupting battlefield communication by cutting Ukraine's access to the Starlink satellite system.
Kravtsov, 33, who is from Mykolaiv and volunteered for Ukraine's military in the summer of 2022, is part of an assault squad. He said he was the proud owner of a "beautiful" American-made M16 rifle, but in the fall, his group was all outfitted with European firearms instead.
His squad still uses other U.S. equipment, he said, including a Humvee that he and others drive during their missions into Russia's Kursk region, and believes that losing access to the U.S. shipments will be bad for Ukraine.
"Of course I am worried," Kravtsov said. "But now drones have changed everything. They are the most dangerous weapon on the battlefield."
More domestic production
Ukraine says it can produce millions of drones each year, which is part of a warfare shift that has left Kyiv less dependent on the U.S.
According to the Germany based Kiel Institute, Washington has provided nearly $70 billion US in "military allocations" to Ukraine since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022. But the proportion of U.S. equipment making up Ukraine's supply has decreased over time.
"The U.S. does not have the same leverage they had three years ago," said Oleksandr Kraiev, director of the North American program at Ukrainian Prism, a Kyiv-based think-tank.
Kraiev, who spoke to CBC News by Zoom, said that according to domestic statistics, 76 per cent of the country's military supplies were produced by the United States. Currently, 40 per cent of what Ukraine's ground forces need is produced domestically, while about 30 per cent comes from Europe, he said.
Ukraine is in a much better position now than even last spring, Kraiev said, when a U.S. aid package was held up by Republicans in Congress, leading to shortages of ammunition and missiles for air defence systems.
"We can handle the shortage of artillery ammunition because we have a lot of stockpiles," he said. "Armoured vehicles will not be supplied in sufficient numbers, but we are not conducting any offensive operations as of now."
U.S. supplies relied on by Ukraine
However, Ukraine has come to rely heavily on the U.S. air defence systems that have become crucial to protecting Ukrainian cities.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said on Tuesday that the U.S. pause threatens the country's ability to maintain and repair the Patriot missile systems.
Kraiev said that the Trump administration's order to halt aid won't affect the co-operation between the two countries on intelligence and reconnaissance, nor has there been any move to shut off the country's access to Starlink — the satellite internet network that provides coverage across rural Ukraine.
Starlink is owned by Elon Musk, who is a senior Trump aide who leads the new Department of Government Efficiency.
"We are not hearing anything about shutting down Starlink. So hopefully fingers crossed that will not be on the table," Kraiev said, adding that the Starlink network is key for enabling communication along the front line. "It is the most valuable asset of everything that America provides to us."
Eutelsat, a French satellite operator, has said it is in talks with European governments about providing connectivity in Ukraine.
EU special summit
In the wake of U.S. actions, European nations are racing to boost defence spending to Ukraine, and European Union leaders will meet in Brussels on Thursday to discuss an $840 billion US plan to beef up the region's defences and further aid Ukraine militarily.
While Kraiev said Europe will inevitably play a larger role in Ukraine going forward, he believes Kyiv can salvage relations with Washington and that both countries will work on a new version of the mineral deal.
"Trump is still very much interested in the Ukrainian economy. He is very much interested in profiteering," Kraiev said.
"He is known to be quite a narcissistic, egocentric megalomaniac, but it's OK. We know how to work with that."
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Reuters