Wisconsin primary: 7 storylines in high-stakes contest for Trump, Sanders
Bernie Sanders likely to win, giving him a chance to refocus the narrative
If Republicans want to take down party front-runner Donald Trump, Wisconsin might help.
Same goes for Democrats hoping to fire up discussions around Bernie Sanders's chances of blocking Hillary Clinton.
- Donald Trump on the defensive ahead of Wisconsin primary
- 6 things to know about the presidential primaries
"It's really an open question as to whether Wisconsin will be a turning point and a start in a big shift in the race," Craig Gilbert, editor of the Wisconsin Voter Blog, told reporters in a conference call on Monday. "It emboldens the 'Stop Trump' movement."
For Democrats, Sanders is favoured to win Wisconsin, which is largely white. Voters may respond positively to the Vermont senator's anti-trade stance, believing such deals robbed them of manufacturing jobs.
Carrying Wisconsin could give his campaign a bump in viability and convince undecided Democrats to join him for the delegate-rich states ahead.
One way or another, the Wisconsin primary promises to be a big race to watch for both U.S. political parties. Here's a little more context to help explain why:
Trump in recovery mode
The past week has damaged Trump's campaign and may have cost him in the polls. The latest Marquette University Law School poll had him with 30 per cent support, losing by 10 points to Ted Cruz's 40 per cent.
His answer-fumbling on abortion, and a suggestion that "some form of punishment" ought to be meted out against women, drew criticism from both pro-life and pro-choice advocates.
The real estate magnate also caught flak for defending campaign manager Corey Lewandowski, who has been charged by Florida police with simple battery after a reporter alleged he forcefully grabbed her while she attempted to ask Trump a question.
Trump also offered a rare expression of regret after retweeting an unflattering photo of Cruz's wife, Heidi, calling it "a mistake."
Who has the most to lose? Trump
A loss in Wisconsin will make it difficult for Trump to avoid a contested convention — and even harder for him to win the 1,237 delegates needed to clinch the nomination, according to pundits.
Leading up to tonight's contest, Trump would need to win 60 per cent of all remaining delegates, a feat that becomes much harder if he fails to carry Wisconsin.
"It's now a question of whether he can wrap up the convention in the first ballot, or whether it will be an open convention," says Barry Burden, director of the University of Wisconsin-Madison's Elections Research Center. "Trump went from being the real front-runner to the guy who may have the most votes, but may not have enough delegates to wrap up the nomination."
If Trump leaves the state with a small number of delegates, Burden says, "then it becomes a real delegate fight" against Cruz's strong organizational machine in the states ahead.
Trump's critics are hopeful that a contested convention in July could ultimately deny him the nomination.
Who has the most to win? Cruz
This could be a big night for Cruz, the Texas senator and the candidate whom Wisconsin Republicans are rallying behind as a possible Trump-slayer, Gilbert says.
"They decided he was the guy they needed to get behind if they didn't want Donald Trump."
- Tom Mulcair calls Donald Trump a 'fascist'
- Trump's war on political correctness redefining U.S. race
A Cruz win is expected to turn the race. He won a crucial endorsement last week, when Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, who enjoys an 80-per-cent approval rating among likely primary voters, turned up to throw his support behind Cruz.
Trump did himself no favours while stumping in Wisconsin when he continued to attack Walker's leadership and disparaged the state's economy, a tactic party strategists in the state called absurd.
Bernie-mentum narrative
Sanders has now passed Clinton by 2.6 points, according to RealClearPolitics aggregate polling data.
Team Clinton's preoccupation with strategic delegate math and the fight over competing narratives might explain what happened.
A spokesperson for the former Secretary of State recently played down expectations for a Wisconsin win and Clinton herself has not been campaigning in the state in the recent days, opting instead to campaign ahead in New York, where she served as a senator for eight years. Losing there could be devastating to her campaign.
The race in Wisconsin appears tight enough that the proportional allocation of the state's delegates might only help Sanders close the gap by a sliver.
Narrative matters for Sanders as well. Winning Wisconsin could reinvigorate his campaign and turn attention back to the delegate race as he continues to raise money at an astonishing clip.
Sanders has argued many of Clinton's victories have been in southern states likely to turn red in a general contest.
"He's going to be able to make the pitch that he's won in Michigan, tied in Iowa, almost tied in Illinois and he won in Wisconsin — and that those are key battleground states [in a general election]," Burden says.
Current delegate landscape
On the Democratic side, Clinton leads with 1,742 delegates, a sum that includes 483 superdelegates, who can change their allegiance to whichever candidate they choose at the national convention. Sanders trails with 1,051, including 31 superdelegates.
On the Republican side, Trump leads with 739 delegates, followed by 466 for Cruz and 145 for John Kasich. Wisconsin presents 86 Democratic delegates, which will be divvied up proportionally.
For the Republicans, 42 delegates are there for the taking, though this will not be a winner-take-all contest.
Instead, delegates will be allocated based on a mathematical formula described as a "winner-takes-most" scenario: 18 delegates go to the overall statewide winner and three votes each will be awarded to the winner of the plurality in each of the state's eight congressional districts.
Kasich in the middle
Kasich is polling in third place. His chances of actually achieving a strong result in Wisconsin are thin, but his presence has made it more difficult for both Cruz and Trump to move on to a two-man race.
Both candidates have characterized him as an election spoiler and have tried to force Kasich out of the race. He has resisted.
Kasich argued in Wisconsin this week that in general-election matchups against Clinton and Sanders, he polls the best among the Republican hopefuls.
Wild card: Wisconsin's open primary
Voter turnout is expected to be very high in Wisconsin, likely the highest primary turnout in decades, Burden says.
Wisconsin is also an open primary, which allows same-day registration for voters and independent voters to cast ballots — a plus for Sanders.
For the Republicans, the beneficiary is not so clear.
"Trump attracts more non-traditional Republicans but other candidates tend to do better with late-deciders," Burden says.
"Having more independents vote in the Republican primary is not necessarily a help to Trump as some of them are participating to oppose his candidacy."