What connection does the attack on Paris have to ISIS

Wesley Wark is a visiting Professor at the University of Ottawa's Graduate School of Public and International Affairs. He is engaged on a research project on changing perceptions of the terrorist threat in a Canadian context from 9/11 to the present. Wesley Wark has served for two terms on the Prime Minister's Advisory Council on National Security and on the Advisory Committee to the President of the Canada Border Services Agency. We reached Wesley Wark near Ottawa.

Piya Chattopadhyay: The attacks happened on Friday night Paris time, they occurred shortly after the U.S. announced their strikes against ISIS - killing they believe the most recognizable face of the movement - the militant known as Jihadi John. Is any of that significant in terms of timing? The U.S. announces that and then we see several attacks in Paris.

Wesley Wark: I don't think so. From all we can tell of the nature of this attack is that it was a significant amount of time to plan, prepare, collect the arms, and ensure the people have the right type of training--because it does seem that they were professional shooters. The timing was probably coincidental.

People are obviously reading of the Paris attacks at the same time as the downing of the Russian airliner in the Sinai Peninsula, and bombings in Hezbollah controlled suburbs of Beirut. Putting these things together and wondering whether they're supposed to be part of some larger chain of events. But in fact I suspect the timing was more coincidental. Not to deny that it was a very serious attack and the Islamic State might be attempting more attacks like that in the future.

I think the exact timing of the terrorist attack was more a product of how long it took to put it together.

PC: Help me out here, Wesley. A lot of people have said exactly what you argued against. They look at Beirut, the downing of the airplane over Egypt, Paris. All believed to be carried out by ISIS. Some would suggest that this might mark a new international role for ISIS, trying to show their might and power. You don't see the connection between the three at this point, as you've said. So, what is the strategy of ISIS?

WW: I think, first of all, we should not have been surprised by the fact that the Islamic State would attempt to strike outside the frontiers of the caliphate, that is Syria and Iraq. They have been proclaiming that intention for over a year. There was a shameless public statement made by the Islamic State Egypt spokesperson in 2014 suggesting that they were going to go on exactly this type of thing.

But I think while the Islamic State may be able to engage in these kinds of attacks outside of the Middle East. The reality remains that the Islamic State seems to be focused primarily on the effort to create the caliphate in Syria and Iraq.

I think the external attacks are the Islamic State proving that they can do it. And they're loving the attention. The focus remains for them and should be for the outside world, on what is happening in Syria and Iraq.

PC: As we know France has been very involved in the U.S.-led coalition against ISIS. This is the second attack in 2015 we have seen in France. Is there a specific reason that France is such an attractive target? 

WW: Yes, there is a reason. It was explained very clearly in the communiqué that the Islamic State released on Saturday morning following the attacks in Paris. That communiqué said effectively that France was on the top of the Islamic State's list of enemies for a number of reasons. 

They listed three reasons, in fact. One was that France was conducting air-strikes against the Islamic State and that they deserved to be punished for those air strikes. The second reason was that France in particular has mistreated and abused its Muslim population in the eyes of the Islamic State. And the third reason was that the Islamic State leadership seems to find France of a particularly perverse culture. In this horrible communiqué they talk about one of the targets of the attack being a site of prostitution and perversion.

In their minds, they have elevated France to being this symbol of the Western state that they hate.

PC: Islamic State has claimed responsibility for these attacks. So far every world leader that has stepped in front of a microphone seems to agree that it was ISIS. Wesley Wark, can we be sure that the Islamic State is in fact responsible and not al Qaeda or some other militant group? 

WW: I think we can be pretty sure. There's always the possibility that it was another group or a group claiming a connection to the Islamic State. But their communiqué came out quite quickly, was translated into multiple languages and it was quite precise on the details it provided of the nature of the attacks. Including the fact that there were eight attackers involved--and initially the French authorities had thought that there were just seven attackers, so now they're on a manhunt for the eighth attacker who they believe may have gotten away.

Not only does the Islamic State have the intention and now the demonstrated capabilities to launch this type of attack. But everything points to the fact that their claim of responsibility appears to be true.

PC: We know that police have detained people in neighbouring Brussels. With the open borders in Europe, are there any implications that people in another European country may have coordinated this attack?
 
WW: The European Union is already under a lot of stress about the Schengen Agreement about open borders among member countries of the EU that would allow the free flow of people. They're under pressure trying to deal with the terrific in flux of refugees from Syria and the Middle East. In a lot of ways, the agreement has already started to breakdown. 

The reality of the Islamic State's attack and the possibility of future attacks, particularly on Europe, this will force Europe rethink how it defends itself and whether open borders are a good idea in the present circumstance.