The Current

Conservatives may not win new voters, but will use SNC-Lavalin ethics report to galvanize base: pollster

Our national affairs panel weighs in on the ethics commissioner's findings on the SNC-Lavalin affair. As party leaders line up to condemn the prime minister, we explore how different parties will try to leverage the report ahead of the federal election.

NDP, Greens will try to tempt wavering Liberal voters, says Shachi Kurl

Clockwise from top right: Green Party Leader Elizabeth May, Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer, Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh. Trudeau has been condemned in an ethics report, less than 10 weeks from the federal election.

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With less than 10 weeks to the federal election, party leaders have united in condemning Prime Minister Justin Trudeau after Canada's ethics commissioner found he violated the Conflict of Interest Act in his handling the SNC-Lavalin affair.

But a leading pollster says their strategies for using the issue to sway voters will vary — and the focus for some will not be on winning new voters.

"The people who were initially outraged, angry, really feeling PO'd about SNC-Lavalin migrated their votes a while ago," said Shachi Kurl, executive director of the Angus Reid Institute, a not-for-profit polling organization.

She told The Current's guest host Duncan McCue that "those who went over to the Conservatives are going to stay with the Conservatives," but that leader Andrew Scheer isn't necessarily going to pick up any more new voters.

Rather, she said Scheer will focus on using the report's findings to galvanize his base, "which is so annoyed with Justin Trudeau at the moment — they would line up and vote Conservative three times if they could, if that was a possibility for them." 

A man sits with his index fingers together pointing upwards.
Conflict of Interest and Ethics Commissioner Mario Dion released a report on the SNC-Lavalin affair on Wednesday, and found that Trudeau violated the Conflict of Interest Act. (Adrian Wyld/Canadian Press)

However, she added that picking up new voters could be a possibility for NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and Green Party Leader Elizabeth May.

"This is about playing to disaffected Liberal voters and saying: 'You know what, that gentleman there, Justin Trudeau, promised to be better than all of us and has turned out not to be what he promised to be. If you are feeling unhappy about that, come on over to us.'" 

On Wednesday, Conflict of Interest and Ethics Commissioner Mario Dion released a report that found Prime Minister Justin Trudeau violated the Conflict of Interest Act by trying to influence then-justice minister Jody Wilson-Raybould and get her to overrule a decision to not grant a deferred prosecution agreement to the Quebec-based engineering firm SNC-Lavalin.

SNC-Lavalin is facing bribery and fraud charges related to alleged payments of close to $50 million to public officials in Libya between 2001 and 2011 to secure government contracts. The company is due back in court Sept. 20. A deferred prosecution agreement would have allowed the company to avoid a criminal trial.

Trudeau accepted responsibility for what happened, but said he doesn't accept all of the report's findings.

Trudeau, Opposition leaders respond to damning ethics report

5 years ago
Duration 1:43
With the federal election drawing near, Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh are calling on Canadians to vote out Trudeau as prime minister.

Kurl thinks the Liberals' primary concern will be left-of-centre voters who "have started to drift and bleed all over the place." 

"They're indicating for the NDP, they're indicating for the Greens, a lot of them are saying they're undecided, which is kind of code for 'I might not even show up and vote,'" she said. 

"For Justin Trudeau it's about keeping jobs and affordability on the front burner, and this to the extent possible, on the back burner." 

To discuss how the resurgence of the SNC-Lavalin scandal could affect the federal election, McCue spoke to:

  • Katie Simpson, senior reporter with CBC News.
  • Martin Patriquin, columnist for iPolitics.ca and the Montreal Gazette.
  • Shachi Kurl, executive director of the Angus Reid Institute.

Written by Padraig Moran, with files from Catharine Tunney and John Paul Tasker. Produced by Idella Sturino and Howard Goldenthal.