8 ridings across British Columbia to watch on election night
There are 43 electoral districts across the province — but some can get a little more focus than others
Seemingly every federal election, there's a thought that the late night counting of votes in British Columbia will determine which party will form government.
And seemingly every federal election, it doesn't happen.
Polls close at 7 p.m. PT in B.C. Monday, a half hour after everywhere from Alberta to Quebec. That means that by the time a substantial number of ballots are counted in B.C., a government might already be called — or it could be the focus of the entire country into the early hours of the morning.
There are 43 electoral districts across British Columbia, and they all matter — but based on this election's candidates, past history and current polling, here are eight that are likely to get a little more attention on Monday night.
South Surrey-White Rock
If the polls are correct, the Liberal Party not only stands on the verge of winning a fourth straight election, but could receive a majority government.
That would require them to win an additional 19 ridings across the country from where they stood when Parliament was dissolved — and one of their top possibilities is South Surrey-White Rock.
The Conservative Party has won the last two elections there, but the Liberals have been within five percentage points, and were victorious there in 2015. Incumbent Conservative MP Kerry-Lynne Findlay seeks re-election against White Rock Coun. Ernie Klassen in the riding along the Canada-U.S. border.
Richmond Centre-Marpole
But if the polls are inaccurate, and there's more support for the Conservative Party than they indicate, Pierre Poilievre's party could pick up more seats in British Columbia en route to a possible government.
One of those seats in Metro Vancouver is Richmond Centre-Marpole, where Liberal incumbent Wilson Miao seeks re-election against Conservative Chak Au, a longtime Richmond city councillor.
North Island-Powell River
While the Conservatives would like to take away seats currently held by the Liberal party, most of their best opportunities for pickups are at the expense of the NDP, which has been lagging behind in federal and provincial polls all campaign.
Their biggest target is Vancouver Island, where there are four ridings north of Greater Victoria currently held by the NDP, but which went to the Conservative Party or their predecessors in many elections in the 1990s and 2000s.
It's why Poilievre has been in the region on multiple occasions.
The highest profile of those four ridings is North Island-Powell River, where polarizing Conservative candidate Aaron Gunn seeks to defeat NDP candidate Tanille Johnston and Liberal Jennifer Lash.
Questions about strategic voting have dominated progressive discussions about those ridings — but it's impossible to say how much it will change voting habits until after Monday night.
Victoria
But all seven ridings on Vancouver Island are hard to forecast, and not all of them are trending Conservative.
Liberal Leader Mark Carney has visited the Victoria riding three times during the course of the campaign, a sign of his party's desire to retake the seat along with the adjacent riding of Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke.
University of Victoria associate professor Will Greaves hopes to take the seat for the Liberals from incumbent NDP MP Laurel Collins, which would turn B.C.'s provincial capital red for the first time since the 2000 election.
Saanich-Gulf Islands
And to the north of Victoria, Green Party co-leader Elizabeth May hopes to hold onto a seat she has held since 2011, despite her party doing worse in federal polls than at any point during her tenure.
That area of Vancouver Island was held by the Conservative Party prior to May's victory, meaning the party is optimistic for a pickup here.
But it's another place where questions about strategic voting and whether progressive voters pool their support are a big part of the conversation.
Burnaby Central
Of course, there's another federal leader who's also at risk of losing their B.C. riding.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh's Burnaby South riding was eliminated during redistribution, and he seeks re-election in the newly drawn Burnaby Central electoral district.
However, it's seen as a tossup because, in the past two general elections, Singh won Burnaby South by less than 10 percentage points, and his party is doing significantly worse in the polls than either of those outings.
Party leaders generally receive a bump in support relative to how a typical candidate would perform in a riding — but will it be enough for Singh on Monday?
Twelve of the NDP's 24 current seats are in British Columbia, meaning much of the focus on the party's fate will be there. None loom larger than Singh's.
Abbotsford-South Langley
While there are plenty of other ridings across Metro Vancouver with potentially interesting three-way races, there's one in the Fraser Valley with a different three-way split.
Longtime MLA Mike de Jong hoped to run for the Conservatives in the new riding of Abbotsford-South Langley, but was rejected by the party with no public reason. The Conservatives instead appointed Sukhman Gill, a 25-year-old Langley businessman who was raised on his parent's blueberry farm.
De Jong decided to run as an Independent in the traditionally Conservative district and has the support of the retiring Conservative MP for the area — giving hope to both de Jong, and Liberal candidate Kevin Gillies, who might be able to come up the middle.
Kelowna
And while most of the ridings that will get attention on election night are either in the Lower Mainland or Vancouver Island, there are ten seats up for grabs beyond Hope.
The Conservatives currently hold the vast majority of them, and are hoping to sweep the region with pickups in Skeena-Bulkley Valley and Similkameen-South Okanagan-West Kootenay.
But the Liberal Party is also mildly optimistic about their chances in Kelowna, the biggest city in B.C.'s Interior.
The area has only been won once by the party in recent history, by Stephen Fuhr in 2015 — but he's back hoping to retake the area from Conservative incumbent Tracy Gray.
It's the type of seat the Conservatives need to take for granted if they hope to form government after Monday.
Conversely, if the race is close, it portends a happy night for the Liberals.
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