Daily average of new COVID-19 cases drops as Hamilton awaits peak of second wave

Hamilton Public Health Services (HPHS) says the city is in Wave 2 but has not hit its peak yet, despite already surpassing the number of infections in the first wave. The question is no longer if we will see a peak — now public health is wondering just how intense it will be.

There is also a glimmer of hope as the new average number of daily COVID-19 cases dropped over the weekend from roughly 28 to 18.

A presentation from public health on Monday morning offered insights into the virus and how it has hit Hamilton over the past six months.

Four phases of the virus so far

Public health says the virus has shown four phases in the city so far.

The first phase, from March 10 to March 31, was the pre-peak of Wave 1. Most cases were due to travel, but roughly two weeks after the city's first case, it saw the first community spread infection. By March 31, there were 111 cases reported to HPHS as well as 14 people in hospital, two deaths and one outbreak.

The second phase was the peak of Wave 1.

"There was a bit of a shift away from cases being due to travel and it was a shift toward people catching the virus due to contact with other known cases of COVID-19 ," HPHS epidemiologist Stephanie Hughes said.

It saw more outbreaks hit the city — 32 in total. Most outbreaks were in long-term care homes, but more cases spread within retirement homes. Both caused infection rates to spike in people over the age of 70.

And in late May, people in their 20s began to get infected.

Overall, the second phase saw 568 people get COVID-19. The virus killed 36 more people and hospitalized 121.

The third phase, from June 1 to July 31, was the post-peak period and the end of Wave 1. The province started re-opening businesses and activities. As more people socialized, rates of household spread increased.

Testing for the virus soared, with almost 20,000 more tests completed in those two months. A total of 211 cases of COVID-19 were reported. Seven people died and eight people were hospitalized.

The current phase started in August and is the pre-peak period of Wave 2. Schools are open now, but haven't worsened the spread of the virus.

"We've continued to see cases primarily due to people being in contact with other known cases of COVID-19 and also cases with undetermined sources [that are] community-acquired," Hughes said.

"Ongoing socialization has been an issue and a key driver behind our case activity and cases continue to occur in households and social groups."

New outbreaks in this phase have also contributed to a rise in cases.

There have been 590 cases reported to Hamilton Public Health since Aug. 1, and Hughes said the number continues to steadily rise. There have been two new deaths and 13 hospitalizations.

COVID hits Hamilton in 'peaks and valleys'

Dr. Elizabeth Richardson, the city's medical officer of health, highlighted three potential scenarios for the second wave in Hamilton.

The first scenario, a slow burn with a smaller second wave and fewer localized outbreaks, has already been disproven, she said. 

"That's what we were hoping we were seeing ... but we now do have a larger wave," she said.

Richardson said what we're seeing right now are "peaks and valleys" of infection. That's the second scenario. The rolling hills-style visual shows a consistent rise and fall, consistent with some areas not seeing much of the virus and other areas dealing with outbreaks.

The final potential scenario is the fall peak.

"This is a very large second wave that may target health-care systems in areas with high population density, with regional and local outbreaks that are hard to contain, and severe outbreaks in congregate settings." Richardson said.

"This is the more severe scenario which we are hoping doesn't come to pass and is why we are working so hard to remind everybody we have to learn to live with COVID-19, and that means taking measures at all times."

Another outbreak at The Cardinal

Parkview Nursing Centre and Cardinal Retirement Residence are the two newest COVID-19 outbreaks in the city. A single staff member at each location have been infected.

The Cardinal had a previous outbreak, that infected 62 people and killed six.

"It is a signal to remind everybody of the importance of those infection prevention and control measures, [using] personal protective equipment, staying home if you feel sick, all of that stuff," Richardson said on Monday afternoon.

Richardson said retirement homes, nursing homes and long-term care homes, received a letter to ensure they are following provincial directives. Those include screening staff, residents and visitors, proper PPE use, and not permitting absences unless there is an exception of some kind.

She added that infections, even in retirement homes and long-term care homes, are inevitable if there are cases in the community.

"We're definitely working with these organizations and we think we're farther ahead but there's no doubt systematically there's probably some other things ... that need to be done on a wider basis," Richardson said.

There are 11 outbreaks in Hamilton, including one of the city's largest at Spinco, which has infected 78 people. That's up by four.

Lower daily cases shows glimmer of hope

Right now, there are 155 active cases in Hamilton according to public health.

There have been a total of 1,525 cases, 19 more than Sunday.

An increase of 19 is lower than the previous daily average of 27 new cases. And it comes after a few days of fewer daily infections.

"We're going to hope, fingers crossed, that trend continues because of good work going on in this community ... we'll keep watching that," Richardson said.

She noted a recent rise in COVID-19 infections is the result of a few factors:

• More overall spread in the community.
• A testing backlog, which is now mostly cleared.
• People spreading the virus by ignoring public health measures.

Richardson added that the Spinco outbreak would have also had an impact on the numbers but said the same kind of transmission is happening in other places.

The virus has killed 47 people and 1,321 have recovered.

Brant

There are 12 active cases in Brant County. Four more cases of COVID-19 were reported on Monday, for a total of 217.

Five people have died and 200 have recovered.

Halton

Halton has 221 active cases of the virus. There have been 1,841 cases during the pandemic. Thirty people have died and 1,590 have recovered.

Burlington has 87 active cases and has seen 514 people be infected by the virus. Eleven people have died.

Haldimand-Norfolk

Eleven people in Haldimand and Norfolk counties have COVID-19.

The virus has infected 504 people and killed 32.

Niagara

There are 66 active cases of COVID-19 and five outbreaks ongoing in Niagara.

The region has seen a total of 1,253 cases during the pandemic, 1,268 of which are resolved. Sixty-eight people have died.