PC, NDP, Liberal leaders visit Hamilton as election looms

• Read all of CBC Hamilton's coverage of the Ontario election here. 

The Ontario election is Thursday, and three of the four major party leaders announced plans to be in the Hamilton area Wednesday to shore up support. 

PC Leader Doug Ford visited workers at the Mondelēz Canada candy factory in the riding of Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas. He was also set to visit workers at Decora Powder Coatings in St. Catharines. 

NDP Leader Marit Stiles shared plans to visit the Ontario Nurses Association local in Niagara Falls, members of Hamilton Health Sciences workers' union, CUPE 7800, in Hamilton Centre, and teachers at a café in the Hamilton Mountain riding.  

Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie was also set to be in Hamilton Mountain at her party's campaign office. 

The leaders' whereabouts this close to the election indicate they believe those ridings to be competitive, said Brock University politics Prof. Stefan Dolgert. He told CBC Hamilton that Niagara Falls, St. Catharines, Niagara Centre, Hamilton Mountain, Hamilton Centre and Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas are all ridings to watch this election because they could change party affiliation. 

Voters in all those ridings elected NDP MPPs last general election, and this time, polling indicates most are close races between NDP and PC candidates, Dolgert said. 

Hamilton Centre is "the biggest wild card," with former sitting member Sarah Jama running as an Independent in what appears to be a close race with NDP candidate Robin Lennox, he said. Depending on how close the parties are, it's possible there could be a vote split on the left, Dolgert added.

"I don't think the NDP and Liberals have run a very good set of campaigns," Dolgert said, adding he doesn't think those parties were able to motivate voters to support them or find fault in the PCs. "There just hasn't been a lot of energy."

McMaster University politics Prof. Peter Graefe said Ford framed the election as being about who could stand up to U.S. President Donald Trump in a trade war. He appears to have been successful in that "sleight of hand," despite premiers having little control over trade, Graefe said.

"To the extent that [voters are] thinking about politics, I think they're thinking about the big international issues: Trump and tariffs," Dolgert said, adding the threat of economic strife could be "motivating folks to stick with the devil they know." 

At a stop in Hamilton on Friday, Stiles told CBC Hamilton that NDP voters turning to the PC is "just not what I'm seeing and feeling out there at all."

"I'm really focused right now on how we're going to flip blue seats to orange," Stiles said.

Despite the intrigue of Hamilton's and Niagara's races, "not a lot" has stood out about Ontario's snap winter election, Graefe said. 

In a typical election, one might have expected to see "signs down every street" or more people out canvassing, Graefe said, but due to the cold and snowy winter, likely outreach is taking place over the phone and online. 

Dolgert said the PCs were "almost running a zombie campaign" by not appearing at local candidates' debates.

And both professors said turnout is likely to be low this election — a prediction Flamborough-Glanbrook candidate Donna Skelly made when she was the only local PC candidate to participate in a debate organized by Cable 14 last Wednesday. 

Skelly said she thought turnout would be low because "we don't have a very attractive opposition," in Ontario.

"Ontario does have a turnout problem," Graefe said. About 44 per cent of eligible voters came out for the 2022 election — a historic low. Advance poll results show about six per cent of voters voted early this year. 

"Which party turns their voters out may be quite crucial in who wins," Graefe said.