Liberals prepare to rank their choices for next N.B. party leader

New Brunswick Liberals are embarking on a leadership race unlike any other the party has held.

For the first time, the party's ranked-ballot system of counting votes could be decisive in determining who leads the Liberals into the 2024 provincial election.

A candidate who becomes the second or third choice of a lot of party members could end up the winner on Aug. 6.

"You ask for support, and if people don't give you their first vote, you ask if you can be their second choice," said  candidate Robert Gauvin, who said "a few" party members have already said yes to him on that.

Susan Holt said it means she's not at a disadvantage from entering the race last month, much later than three of the other candidates, because she can ask members already pledged to one of them to consider her.

"The commitments they've made are the commitments they've made, but that number two ballot is really important," she said.

The current race has five declared candidates as of this week, making it less likely a single candidate can win a majority in the first round.

When Liberals vote in August, they'll rank the candidates by preference. If no one wins a majority of first-choice votes, the last-place candidate is dropped and the second, third, fourth and fifth choices of their voters are reallocated.

That continues every round until one candidate wins a majority, under the official rules released this week.

"I think it really encourages all the candidates to make sure that their support isn't too pocketed and we're all being really collegial and positive with each other, because it will matter," Holt said.

Candidate Donald Arseneault agrees that all candidates must be "friendly to everybody. … Even if someone is supporting another person, you've got to go spend some time with them."

That work can swing the result. Federal Conservatives used a ranked-ballot system and their last two leadership race winners, Andrew Scheer and Erin O'Toole, both came from behind to beat the candidates who led in the first rounds.

The New Brunswick Liberal ranked-ballot system has been in place since the party's 2012 leadership race, but it wasn't decisive then or in the 2019 contest.

In 2012, Brian Gallant easily won on the first ballot against two candidates, one of them with little support. In 2019, Kevin Vickers was acclaimed.

In the old days, second-choice scenarios would play out among delegates on the day of a convention during multiple rounds of voting.

Now, "instead of doing it in a one-day convention, it has to be a three-month, four-month campaign issue," said Restigouche West Liberal MLA Gilles LePage.

"It has to be part of the campaign for every candidate and it has to be part of the reflection by every member." 

On the other hand, Tracadie MLA Keith Chiasson, who supports candidate T.J. Harvey, said it may be too early to think about second-choice strategies.

"Everybody's just trying to get the lay of the land," he said.

Former Liberal leadership candidate Mike Murphy said he preferred to see the process play out spontaneously at conventions, ballot by ballot.

"You see the reaction of people winning and losing," he said. "You see their temperament under pressure. You see if they're willing to sacrifice their principles or not." 

In 2016, the Progressive Conservatives saw how that spontaneity can play out when they elected Blaine Higgs as leader.

Without a ranked ballot, PC members at Fredericton's Aitken Centre and in four satellite voting locations watched as candidates who were eliminated made dramatic walks over to one of the remaining hopefuls to endorse them.

"As much as it's fun to get wrapped up in the excitement of a convention and the emotion of things shifting, I think that does lead to spur of the moment decision-making," Holt said.

"Something as significant as the leadership of a party and a province should probably be a sober decision taken without some of the fanfare that happens at those conventions." 

Gauvin said his second-ballot strategy is helped by the profile he gained two years ago when he quit the PC government over a plan to close some small hospital emergency departments at night.

"I think one thing that helps is being known all over the province," he said. "If you're not their first choice, you could be their second choice." 

Murphy predicted "natural alliances" will begin to form in the race, with two candidates each agreeing to encourage their supporters to make the other their second choice. 

Chiasson said the system will force all candidates to speak to more members in more parts of the province and that will give the eventual winner a stronger base of support for the next election.

"It makes the race a lot richer for the party."