3 battleground districts to watch in the early run-up to a fall election

Now that the House of Assembly is closed for the summer, politicians are back in their districts for the summer barbecue circuit.

And with an election coming this fall, expect the door knocking to start now.

The new 40-district map has been finalized and that has politicians deciding where, or if they'll run this fall. Parties have started nominating candidates, and already some races are shaping up to be interesting ones to watch.

A lot can and will change between now and Nov. 30, but here are three districts I'm already watching.

St. John's West

This will be a three-way race between newly minted NDP leader Earle McCurdy, former Liberal MP Siobhan Coady and the Progressive Conservative incumbent, cabinet minister Dan Crummell.

The Liberals have a head start and are feeling like they have a good chance to take this district. Coady has already canvassed much of the area, and has some brand name after serving as MP for St. John's South Mount Pearl, covering some of the district.

McCurdy has recognition as a party leader but his summer will have to be divided between raising his profile provincially and knocking on doors in his own district.

Crummell is the last MHA the PCs have in St. John's, so expect them to defend this one strongly.

Crummell has also been working to raise his profile with lots of public announcements, like last week's demonstration of bicycle helmet safety.

All three candidates have a lot to lose in this race, so expect them all to fight hard.

St. John's East-Quidi Vidi

​This race will be a test of Lorraine Michael's popularity now that she's no longer the NDP leader.

She'll face a strong challenge from Liberal candidate Paul Antle, who came second in the Liberal leadership, giving him plenty of profile and a built-up organization to help him get elected.

Like in St. John's West, the proximity of the federal election may be a factor. If Tom Mulcair does well at the polls federally in October, it could help provincial NDP candidates like Michael in November.

Lewisporte-Twillingate

This is one district where we could see two sitting MHAs duking it out. 

Right now it's held by Natural Resources Minister Derrick Dalley.

Thanks to the reduction of seats, Liberal Jim Bennett was squeezed out on the Northern Peninsula, where he's currently an MHA.

Instead, he's picked this district in central Newfoundland. He says the issues of tourism and and the fishery are similar.

He'll have the advantage of the rising Liberal fortunes, but the fact he doesn't live in the district could hurt him.

It's not even a guarantee that he'll be the Liberal candidate. The nomination hasn't opened yet, so Bennett may have to fight just to get the nomination if someone within the district decides to challenge him.