Budget 'tipping point' for young nurse's decision to leave N.L.

A young nurse who came to Newfoundland and Labrador five years ago for a cheaper education and fell in love with the province has decided to leave, and is blaming tax measures in last week's budget.

• N.L. budget: $1.83B deficit, across-the-board tax hikes and layoffs
• Exodus? Newfoundland and Labrador's bleak finances fuel angst for the future

Taylor Kerr said she's one of many young professionals feeling alienated by the budget, and said there isn't much of a future for her generation.

"It almost feels like the government doesn't see us as an asset," Kerr told CBC News Tuesday.

Reasons to be optimistic

But a public policy and regional development specialist at Memorial University's Harris Centre doesn't believe this is the beginning of an exodus from the province. 

Rob Greenwood said a lot of people are hurting as the economy falters and job losses mount, but he sees plenty of reasons to be optimistic.

Greenwood said the province is coming off the most prosperous decade in its history. The population is more skilled, experienced and worldly than ever before, he said, and is ripe for an explosion of entrepreneurship.

"Anyone who's sizing up the merits of moving versus staying and have skills and expertise and knowledge in particular sectors ... I think we're going to have a real opportunity — and track the stats, I guarantee ya — you're going to see more business creation over the next four to five years."

Greenwood predicts a flood of job opportunities as the baby boomer generation retires in large numbers.

With Alberta's economy also sagging, he said the only real pull is from southern Ontario and some parts of British Columbia. But "off the charts" housing prices make those regions less attractive.

"I don't think there's going to be a massive outmigration, at least in the short to medium term," said Greenwood, "because of that lack of pull to go with the push."

Job opportunities greater in Nova Scotia

But the pull is strong enough for Kerr and her partner, who are returning to their home province of Nova Scotia in the fall.

They both graduated a year ago from Memorial University, and were strongly considering putting down roots in Newfoundland and Labrador.

They talked about buying a house and starting a family, and were enjoying the network of friends they had established.

"Can we afford a vehicle? Can we afford insurance on that vehicle? Can we afford to buy a home now? Have kids? All that kind of stuff," Kerr said.

"It's almost like they're not welcoming us into the province.They're almost saying 'we're going to tax you on almost everything you can possibly do here.'"

Greenwood acknowledged there is a "painful adjustment" ahead as the province moves past a period of "irrational exuberance" driven by record oil production and royalties and government spending, but doesn't buy into the doom and gloom predictions.

"I think when you compare the push and the pull factors, there's a lot of reason to stay," he said.