Byelection battles: 3 races the Tories are desperate to win

Three senior Progressive Conservatives are on their way out, paving the way for several months of byelection campaigning. Trying to hang on to these seats will be one of the first big tests for new Premier Paul Davis. 

Let's break down the challenges and opportunities for the three parties, in what could be a dry run for a general election next year.

Trinity-Bay de Verde

This district is a bellwether, because it tends to reflect the general provincial sentiment.Every MHA elected here since 1982 has sat on the government benches. 

This tendency, to follow the overall trend, is bad news for the PCs. The Liberals have a strong lead in the provincial polls, which may work in the favour of candidate Steve Crocker to replace former finance minister Charlene Johnson, who resigned in September.

Crocker is the former executive assistant for Liberal Leader Dwight Ball, so he has political and organizational experience. He is also campaigning early before other parties even have candidates nominated. 

Right now the PCs seem to be struggling to find someone to run.

Time is ticking down for the government to call the byelection: candidate or not, the Tories will have to announce a date some time in the next two weeks.

The NDP consider this their strongest of the three upcoming byelections, even if the chances of an actual win are remote. Heart's Content councillor and sheep farmer Tolson Rendell is expected to run for the party.

Conception Bay South

This is a much stronger PC district than Trinity Bay de Verde, and — as one of the Tories' metro seats — is the most important for the PCs to hang on to. 

The byelection date is already set for Nov. 5, leapfrogging the earlier resignation in Trinity Bay de Verde.  Former justice minister Terry French resigned Sept. 18.

French's former executive assistant, Barry Petten, will bring political and organizational experience as the PC candidate.

This district has bucked a Liberal wave before. Terry French's father, Bob French, was one of only nine PCs to win against Brian Tobin's Liberals in 1996 and the seat has been in the family ever since then.

The Liberals have a head start. C.B.S. councillor Rex Hillier has been their candidate since July, giving them time to mobilize. He had to fight for that nomination, a big change from the last election when the Liberals parachuted in a campaign organizer who finished a dismal third with just six per cent of the vote.

This is one area NDP insiders admit their support is likely to drop.  They had 25 per cent of the votes last time with an 18-year-old candidate, but expect strong Liberal support will eat into their numbers.

Humber East

Newly former premier Tom Marshall has not yet left his seat but it's only a matter of time. He's looking forward to retirement and the PCs are looking for someone to hold on to the district.

In the last election, Marshall had almost 80 per cent of the vote but a lot has changed in three years. Businessman Stelman Flynn won the nomination for the Liberals after a strong fight that brought out more people than those who actually voted Liberal in the last election. 

Some supporters of runner-up Donna Thistle are bitter about Flynn's win, which may be one possible problem for the Liberals.

Holly Pike wants to run for the NDP again. She's on the party's board and has run federally numerous times before for the party.

Much in this race will depend on who runs for the PCs. Some Liberals are also worried about how much Marshall's popularity may affect the campaign.  If he's out actively campaigning for his would-be successor, then that is going to hurt Liberal hopes of snatching away the seat.

The Liberals have won the last four byelections, snatching up seats from former cabinet ministers and a former premier — they've got momentum.

Davis has made holding on to these seats a priority, because if they lose these three, there isn't much hope of hanging on to the government in the general election next year.