Expect Mark Carney to lead a 'more right-leaning government,' says MUN political scientist

Mark Carney won the federal Liberal leadership race in a landslide victory on Sunday, and a Memorial University political scientist believes there could be a shakeup as the party changes course.

"I think we should expect a slightly more right-leaning government than what we had under Trudeau," Kelly Blidook told CBC Radio's The St. John's Morning Show on Monday.

"I think his goal, as he said, is that he wants to kind of spend less. He still wants to focus on things like housing. He still wants to focus on social programs. So to me, he's saying a lot of the right things."

Carney is an economist, the former governor of the Bank of Canada and former governor of the Bank of England. He won the leadership bid with 85.9 per cent of the vote, beating out runner-up former finance minister Chrystia Freeland and will soon be named Canada's 24th prime minister.

Once Carney is sworn in, his cabinet will follow close behind. Blidook says there likely won't be major changes there.

"We also don't really know exactly how long it'll last, but I would say that really what we're doing now is … waiting for an election to be called," he said, adding he believes an election will be called by the end of the month.

In the meantime, a Carney-led government will be kept on its toes in dealing with U.S. President Donald Trump and the uncertainty of his tariff threats.

"But barring those sorts of things, it should be a relatively straightforward and relatively quick process to see Carney sworn in," said Blidook.

And while he's now the leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, Carney still needs to win a seat as an elected official. 

Blidook says he doesn't see that being a complicating matter in the process.

"The main reason being I don't think Parliament is going to sit again before we have an election," he said.

The federal conservatives have held a lead in the polls for months, but Blidook says Carney is well-positioned to bring in more centrist and right-leaning voters who aren't comfortable voting for Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives. He also warned that Carney is likely going to disappoint people in time.

"The shine is going to come off. There's going to be a lot of things that he's going to learn and we're going to learn. But as of right now, he appears to have taken the leadership as decisively as he really possibly could have," he said.

In the last several weeks, the gap in federal polls between the Conservatives and Liberals has been tightening.

"Things look really good for the Liberals. And we wouldn't have been saying that probably even six, eight weeks ago," said Blidook.

Trump factor

Trump's election win in November might have had a cooling effect on Canadian's interest in voting for the Poilievre-led Conservatives, said Blidook.

Since taking office, Trump has aggressively focused on Canada, from punishing tariffs on Canadian goods, to rhetoric around annexing Canada and turning it into the 51st state.

"This would cause some degree of bump for the Liberals because the Conservatives appear closest to that [Republican] party," Blidook said.

"The fact that Poilievre can even be slightly attached to those things, I think, creates a lot of concern."

Blidook says it didn't help when billionaire Elon Musk, who is in Trump's inner circle, publicly said he wants Poilievre to be Canada's next prime minister.

He said Poilievre has recently attempted to rebrand, but it's a difficult move to pull off when key issues have changed so much.

"To be fair, Pierre Poilievre is not hugely likable. I mean, his party was doing well. But if you kind of look at underneath the polls, there's a bit more of a concern around him as a person."

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