Cochrane: Why the next month will make or break Paul Davis
Paul Davis doesn’t have to call an election for another 10 months, but what happens over the next 30 days could determine if his time as premier will be successful.
The Tories have been hoping that a permanent change in leadership would lead to a positive change in tone and then a significant change in the polls.
But as the C.B.S. byelection revealed, simply changing leaders isn’t enough. Davis’ most important task is to give people a reason to vote PC again.
When the House of Assembly opens on Monday, Davis will get a daily one-on-one confrontation with Dwight Ball, the man most likely to take his job.
The question period battle between the two leaders will drive the news coverage of the fall sitting of the legislature and give Davis the opportunity to win a head-to-head comparison with the Liberal leader.
It’s a contest the new premier has to win.
Taking on Dwight Ball
The PCs have been grumbling that Ball has been getting a free ride and seem determined to try to steer the public’s eye towards the lack of concrete Liberal policy ideas.
An order paper full of housekeeping legislation does not constitute a vision for renewal.
Davis made that abundantly clear in this week’s speech to the St. John’s Board of Trade, saying, "The people of Newfoundland and Labrador can separate the facts of our record and our plan from the fiction being peddled by those with few ideas and fewer details."
The PCs can build on that rhetoric by actually using this session to table and pass some meaningful legislation, which would signal that an aging government isn’t fully out of gas.
Davis hinted in a media scrum last week that his government had a busy legislative agenda planned. But he gave few signals of landmark legislation (outside of the bills needed to cement the public sector pension deals) and the failure to deliver anything meaningful would leave the impression of a government that wants to hold on to power but is unable to give the public a clear reason as to why.
An order paper full of housekeeping legislation does not constitute a vision for renewal.
The challenge for Davis will be keeping the focus on his battles with Ball and whatever legislative agenda he may present.
Questions for Judy Manning
The Opposition has the opportunity to set the agenda in question period each day by seizing on a hot issue or by deploying a clever tactic to get the public’s attention.
Already there is talk of entire question periods devoted to justice and public safety issues to magnify Judy Manning’s absence from the floor of the legislature. The goal is to ensure that Manning remains an unelected liability, rather than a ministerial asset.
Of course, the theatrics in the house this coming week will be mere prologue for a series of far more significant events in late November and likely early December. On Nov. 25, the PCs are exposed to the risk of losing two more seats to the Liberals.
The Liberals have won five straight byelections, taking four seats from the Tories in the process. That includes seats once held by a premier, finance minister, house leader and justice minister. Now the seats of yet another premier and another finance minister are up for grabs.
After the 2011 election night the Liberals had just six seats. If they win these, they will have 16.
Devastated morale
Tory insiders are deeply worried that could happen. The C.B.S. byelection devastated PC morale. The party threw everything it had at a historically blue seat and could only come a close second. In the days since that loss, PC insiders have complained of burn out and byelection exhaustion. It is becoming harder and harder to motivate campaign volunteers following defeat after teeth-kicking defeat.
Winning may be addictive. But losing is contagious.
Lurking behind those byelections is the fall fiscal update, which will almost certainly include a larger deficit for this year and yet another delay in returning to surplus. The government hasn’t been able to balance its books with $100 oil, there is no way it can do it at $80.
The Tories had been hoping to table a surplus budget next spring and use that as part of their re-election bid. But now the prospect of a fourth straight deficit seems almost certain.
With an election legally required by the fall of 2015, it means the PCs will be seeking re-election without having tabled a single balanced budget since winning the 2011 campaign.
It is a daunting task for the new premier and the province should know by Christmas if Davis has been able to improve his party’s fortunes. If voters see a fresh legislative agenda, byelection success and a clear fiscal plan, it may change some minds.
But if they see mundane policy, more lost seats and enough red ink to make cuts inevitable, it may cement the Tories’ defeat.
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