Q & A: John Haggie on hermits, testing and May 2-4
'There is no risk-free strategy, other than ... everybody becoming hermits,' Haggie says
Heading into the long weekend, Health Minister John Haggie says it's not about the camper, it's what you do when you get there — and that's why there'll be no overnight stays this May 2-4.
He said bubbles can become fragile when people interact at campgrounds and cabins, and while the numbers of cases may be low, physical distancing is critical.
"We will never ever get control of this disease" without it, he said.
Haggie joined CBC Radio One's Newfoundland Morning Friday to answer listener questions about COVID-19 and the province's public health emergency.
Here's some of what he had to say, edited for length and clarity.
Paint a quick picture of where we are in this pandemic now.
We're in the trough between two peaks. That's where, according to the modelling that we have from Dr. [Proton] Rahman and from the Public Health Agency of Canada, we're in the dip. And so we have an opportunity during this dip to try and do some of the things that we need to to prepare for the next wave, but also to give people an opportunity to get back to a new way of coping with the virus.
We can't wait it out, so we've got to learn to adapt, and this alert level system of Dr. [Janice] Fitzgerald's is a good way to start.
If we have the capacity to do 700 tests per day but in the last week we've averaged about 122, is it time to open up testing so that anyone who wants a test can get one? Why can't we just test everyone?
Well, I think Dr. Fitzgerald has been asked that question on several occasions and has addressed it very well.
Essentially, the test is only as good as the clinical context it's in and the question you want answered. This is a diagnostic test, not a screening test. So what you would be doing would be saying to a larger number of people, 'We'll test you, but we really don't know whether a negative if you're [feeling] well means you've not got [COVID-19] yet or have got over it. Or a positive if you're well means you've had it and got over it.' There's so much vagueness about it.
We don't have a clear screening test. We don't have an antibody test yet. All the stuff you've seen in the media about these test kits — it's marketing, it's not science or research. None of them have been evaluated in a critical way, in the way that a blood test that you will go to the hospital currently would be evaluated. They're all experimental and unleashing those would just add to the confusion, not clear things up.
Campgrounds are open for day use, but not overnighting. If a park can provide a plan, can government relax that restriction if it's possible to physical distance and stay safe?
The big-picture answer to all of these questions is, there is no playbook for this. We've never been in a situation — there's nobody alive today who's ever gone through anything like this before. So the detailed answer about the RV parks, particularly in campgrounds, is I know Dr. Fitzgerald is meeting with representatives from several RV groups representing campground owners and operators [Friday].
The challenge around campgrounds, and the challenge around May 2-4, is that when people have gone to their campers, when they do go to the cabins, when they do go to those places, they don't distance. You go there for relaxation. But part of that relaxation, I would argue, is the casual interaction of a different group of people. It's not the camping and it's not the cabin. It's what you do when you're there and who you do it with, because your bubble suddenly becomes very fragile, because it's exposed to a lot of other bubbles out of habit, because you've always done that.
Can we extend our bubbles before Alert Level 3?
The bottom line is the recommendation about doubling your bubble was done for Easter weekend. It was done ahead of the introduction of Alert Level 4.
The challenge that we have from a scientific point of view is if the number of people that you don't live with but meet with exceeds 11 in a day, we will never ever get control of this disease. Period. Until there's a vaccine that works and everyone's using it — and that's a whole other discussion to be had — and/or there's an effective, specific treatment for the disease.
The idea of the bubble was simply to allow you to have regular, close, frequent contact with another group of people for whom that was desirable. You don't have to double your bubble.
That's the comment about bubbles, and you will notice in the plan, there is no further comment about bubbles, because as you ease activities and you start to go back to work, if you have not been working for the last few weeks, you're going to start mixing with a larger number of people. If you, outside your bubble, interact with about three or four people a day, it is unlikely that the virus will take hold.
This is all a matter of risk management. There is no risk-free strategy, other than complete lockdown and everybody becoming hermits. Even then, it's not a 100 per cent guarantee, because human nature is what it is and you will desperately find a way to get back to some kind of social interaction.
With files from Newfoundland Morning