Hurricane season begins: 2015 outlook

Not only does June 1 mark the beginning of meteorological summer, but it's also the beginning of tropical storm and hurricane season.

Ryan Snoddon · CBC News · Posted: Jun 01, 2015 5:36 PM EDT | Last Updated: June 1, 2015

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Centre says overall, this Atlantic tropical season is expected to be quieter than average. (Ryan Snoddon/CBC)

Not only does June 1 mark the beginning of meteorological summer, but it's also the beginning of tropical storm and hurricane season.

As always, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Centre has released its prediction for the Atlantic tropical season and overall, this season is expected to be quieter than average.

NOAA's forecasters are projecting a 70 per cent chance this tropical storm season will be below average, with a 20 per cent chance of a near normal season, and just a 10 per cent chance of above normal activity.

NOAA is predicting six to 11 named storms this season, of which three to six are expected to become hurricanes and up to two of those, major hurricanes. Major hurricanes are categories 3, 4 & 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

It should also be noted that these numbers do include tropical storm Ana, which jumped out of the gate early back in the second week of May.

More predictions

A few other agencies which issue hurricane forecasts are also predicting quieter than average years

Colorado State University: 8 named storms, 3 hurricanes, 1 major
UKMET Office: 8 named storms, 5 hurricanes
WSI: 9 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 1 major
The Weather Channel (US): 9 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 1 major

A developing El Nino in the Eastern Tropical Pacific is expected to have a major influence on this year's Tropical Atlantic hurricane season. (Ryan Snoddon/CBC)

Main factors

This year, a developing El Niño in the eastern tropical Pacific is expected to have a major influence on the tropical Atlantic hurricane season. An El Niño is warmer than normal water in the tropical Pacific and when that happens, we often see stronger trade winds and stronger wind shear over the tropical Atlantic.

Those stronger winds typically hinder tropical storm development and strengthening, as thunderstorms are blown apart as they rise into higher atmosphere.

The ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are also expected to be near average this summer and fall, as opposed to above average, which should also keep storm numbers lower.

Climatology statistics show that about one to two storms per year directly affect Atlantic Canada, while two to three threaten our offshore waters. (Ryan Snoddon/CBC)

Tropical storm season: N.L. monthly breakdown

Climatology stats show that one to two storms per year directly affect Atlantic Canada, while two to three threaten our offshore waters.

Snoddon: Inside the Canadian Hurricane Centre

In terms of when we see storms here in Newfoundland, no month compares to September. Since 1900, 33 named storms have made landfall in Newfoundland. Percentage-wise, more than 40 per cent of our named storms have made landfall in September.

Remember: it only takes one

With all of this said, there will certainly be storms firing up in the tropical Atlantic this summer and fall, and as always, we'll have to keep a watchful eye.

As we've seen in the past, it only takes one storm in a season to track into the province and cause damage. It's always a great idea to have an emergency supply kit on hand for your home.

Flood waters from Hurricane Igor ravage the community of Trouty in 2010. (Courtesy: Kim Toope)

2015 storm names

With the exception of large, destructive storms, like Hurricane Igor or Katrina, whose names are retired, tropical storm and hurricane names are used in rotation and re-used every six years. So if some of these names sound familiar, they should. Anyone remember Bill from 2009?

Here are the names for this season: