MHAs align with their preferred candidate as N.L. Liberal leadership contest enters home stretch

Most Liberal MHAs have now declared their support for either John Abbott or John Hogan as the Newfoundland and Labrador Liberal leadership contest enters the home stretch.

And if such a metric can be considered an indicator of a campaign's momentum, Hogan has the advantage.

Up to Wednesday, 10 MHAs have declared their support for Hogan. They are some of the most influential faces in the government of outgoing Premier Andrew Furey.

They include Siobhan Coady, Steve Crocker, Bernard Davis, John Haggie, Krista Lynn Howell, Fred Hutton, Jamie Korab, Elvis Loveless, Pam Parsons and Paul Pike. Korab is the only backbencher among Hogan's supporters.

Six MHAs — three cabinet ministers and three backbenchers — have sided with John Abbott. They are Lisa Dempster, Scott Reid, Sarah Stoodley, Lucy Stoyles, Perry Trimper and Sherry Gambin-Walsh.

Furey on the sidelines, but his people are not

Andrew Furey has not taken sides publicly, but some political staffers in his office are active on Hogan's campaign.

Derek Bennett is Speaker of the House of Assembly, and has not endorsed either of the candidates.

Gerry Byrne has ignored repeated CBC inquiries on the subject, while Andrew Parsons says he'll reveal who he supports on Thursday or Friday.

During his 2020 bid for the leadership against Andrew Furey, Abbott did not have a single MHA supporting him, and he received 34 per cent of the votes. So he's encouraged that a half-dozen are in his corner this time, and believes he can win.

"I do believe that is going to be the result on May 3," said Abbott.

While MHAs can have some influence on how party members may vote in a leadership contest, Abbott said the response to his campaign has given him confidence.

"An MHA is one person," said Abbott. "They may be able to bring other people on with them. Maybe, maybe not."

John Hogan is viewed as the insiders' choice, but he's not letting up.

"You keep going until the last day," said Hogan.

"We're very fortunate to have volunteers in all 40 districts across this province. And they've worked very hard over the last few weeks to register voters. And they're going to continue to work hard on behalf of this campaign over the next five weeks."

Equal influence out outcome for all districts

There are 40 seats in the House of Assembly, and 22 of them are held by Liberals. But each district will have equal influence when the votes are counted at the Jag Soundhouse in St. John's on the afternoon of May 3, regardless of how many people signed up from each district by the March 31 deadline.

There are 1,000 points up for grabs in each district. Registered voters will receive a personal identification number and be able to cast a ranked ballot electronically through a smartphone or computer, or by telephone. Each vote will be counted in the district in which the party member is affiliated.

The two candidates will earn points based on the number of first- and second-place votes they receive. For example, if one of the candidates receives 75 per cent of the first preference ballots in a district, he will receive 750 points for that district, while the other candidate receives 250 points.

Whoever receives a majority of the 40,000 points up for grabs, will be named party leader, and later be sworn in as the province's 15th premier.

The next big test for the two candidates, meanwhile, will be two upcoming debates.

CBC Newfoundland and Labrador will host a live, 40-minute, commercial-free leaders' debate on Wednesday, April 23 during Here & Now beginning at 6:15 p.m. NT. The debate will also be streamed on cbc.ca/nl and YouTube.

Download our free CBC News app to sign up for push alerts for CBC Newfoundland and Labrador. Click here to visit our landing page.