Byelection win puts wind in Liberal sails, says political scientist
PC Leader Wakeham says loss isn't on his leadership
A political scientist says turning the district of Conception Bay East-Bell Island red is an important leap forward for the Newfoundland and Labrador Liberal party, showing they can win even with federal party polls dropping.
Fred Hutton, a prominent former journalist and first-time political candidate, won the byelection Tuesday night, securing 45.9 per cent of the vote over Progressive Conservative Tina Neary, NDP candidate Kim Churchill and Independent Darryl Harding.
Alex Marland, a political science professor at Acadia University and a former Memorial University professor, said he was shocked to see Hutton take the win — flipping the district from the PCs for the first time in 23 years.
"It absolutely shouldn't have worked. This should not have flipped, it should have stayed a Conservative or Progressive Conservative seat. And frankly, I think the Progressive Conservatives and Mr. [Tony] Wakeham have a lot of explaining to do," Marland told CBC News on Wednesday, referring to the PC leader.
"If there is a silver lining in it for them, [it's] a lot better to figure this out now and realize that their strategy is problematic than it is to figure that out during a general election campaign."
Marland said the win puts more wind in the sails of Premier Andrew Furey ahead of a future general election. An election is set for Oct. 14, 2025, but could be called sooner.
"All of a sudden now, they are going to have a big boost of confidence that maybe they wouldn't have had otherwise," Marland said.
"It also gives them some sense that all is not lost. That just because things are difficult at the federal level with the Trudeau Liberals, that does not mean that, you know, Andrew Furey and the Liberals can't get another government."
Furey told reporters Tuesday night he hasn't given a general election call any thought. Marland says he would need a good, clear reason to do it earlier.
"People can smell opportunism. They know exactly what you're doing, and they'll get angry about it," he said.
"From my perspective, I think what this [win] does is it increases the likelihood of an election sooner rather than later, compared to if they had lost."
'I don't think that any of this loss is on me': Wakeham
On Wednesday afternoon, Wakeham said his party had a good candidate in Neary and doesn't see the loss being the result of his leadership.
"I don't think that any of this loss is on me to be perfectly honest with you," Wakeham told CBC News.
"A lot of people think this was a PC seat. I think it was as much that as it was a David Brazil seat [and] David Brazil had retired. I think in some ways we were the underdogs.… The premier lived in the district, there was a well-known candidate running in the district."
Wakeham said he believes the decisions came down to the promises Hutton and the party made during the campaign, and Hutton's ability to bring concerns directly to Furey. Hutton worked with Furey as an advisor before the campaign.
"A lot of the issues that were being brought up were issues that David Brazil and the PC party had been fighting for," he said. "After four years of not spending any money where it should be spent, during the election they came out and actually said 'We are going to put money to address these issues now, and if you elect our candidate this will happen.'"
Wakeham said the party will now look at what it can do differently in future elections and prepare to give residents a clear alternative to the Liberals.
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With files from On The Go