DFO releases 'optimistic' northern cod stock assessment

The latest northern cod stock assessment from the Department of Fisheries and Oceans is more optimistic than last year's, according to scientists.

The stock is currently about twice the limit reference point, and the department says there's a greater than 99 per cent probability it's still above the critical zone in Newfoundland and Labrador. 

The limit reference point marks the boundary between what's considered critical and cautious.

Cautious and healthy zones were not specified in the assessment's release on Thursday because an upper stock reference has not been established yet.

The DFO's assessment is informed by fishery data including catch rates, reporting landings, age composition of the catch, scientific data from oceanographic conditions and several surveys.

The current biomass of mature northern cod is estimated to be 524 kilotonnes. That weight has not changed significantly since 2017.

It is difficult to pinpoint the exact biomass, says stock lead and research scientist Paul Regular, but "optimistic conditions" this year led the DFO to estimate on the higher end of a range that could be as low as 250 kilotonnes.

Stock has had little change since 2016, but Regular says northern cod growth could be limited by an expected decline in capelin this year.

"Because of the importance [of] capelin to survival and growth of the cod population, we're expecting, anticipating that this production of capelin will limit the growth potential of cod," he said.

Recruitment, meaning the number of young fish in the water, is "relatively robust," he said.

Regular added that the risk of stock decline between 2024-28 ranged from 56 per cent to 71 per cent.

Regardless, Regular says general stability in the near term is the general expectation.

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