Ryan Cleary, Seamus O'Regan battle could set the tone for election night

With the Liberals surging, and the New Democrats facing a stiff challenge to hold their ground, many political watchers are eyeing a tight two-way race in St. John's South-Mount Pearl in the waning days of the federal election campaign.

Sources are also suggesting the race in the neighbouring district of St. John's East where stalwart New Democrat Jack Harris is seeking re-election, may also be closer than expected, with Liberal candidate Nick Whalen gaining traction.

The outcome in both ridings could be an early sign of how things play out during Monday's federal election, says Memorial University political scientist Stephen Tomblin.

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"I think the fact that the Liberals seem to be surging ahead nationally may have an impact on voting trends, certainly in this part of the country where there are concerns about keeping (Prime Minister Stephen) Harper out of power," Tomblin said.

That could pose a challenge for the NDP, which — when Parliament was dissolved — held two seats in Newfoundland and Labrador while the Liberals held the other five.

As for the Conservatives, Newfoundland and Labrador has become a wasteland for the party ever since former premier Danny Williams launched a successful "Anything But Conservative" campaign in 2007.

St. John's South-Mount Pearl a 'volatile' riding

NDP incumbent Ryan Cleary and Liberal upstart Seamus O'Regan are locked in a tight battle for voter support in St. John's South-Mount Pearl, with many saying the outcome is too close to call.

But public opinion polls at the federal level show the momentum is clearly weighted in favour of the Liberals who have moved in front, following weeks of neck-and-neck polling results between all three major parties.

The NDP is now trailing both the Liberals and the governing Conservatives.

The latest from CBC Poll Tracker is suggesting the Liberals are poised to double their seat count in Atlantic Canada, after winning 12 in the 2011 election, while projections have the NDP reduced from six to three seats.

The Conservatives are a non-factor in all but a handful of ridings in Atlantic Canada, according to Poll Tracker.

Only seven of 338 seats

Canada's vast geography means there are multiple time zones from coast to coast with results in Newfoundland and Labrador typically the first to be registered while many Canadians still having plenty of time to cast a ballot.

Tomblin says it's difficult to say whether voters in other regions will be influenced by the early results in Newfoundland and Labrador.

After all, it is home to just seven of the 338 seats up for grabs. 

What's more, Tomblin believes voters in this province are more focused on this long-running anti-Conservative trend than they are on the competency of local candidates.

The fact that St. John's South-Mount Pearl has swung from party to party over the last decade is an indicator that voters are largely non-traditional, he explained.

And with the Liberals, now considered the likely challenger to Harper, this could translate into votes in this province for Leader Justin Trudeau and the Grits.

"That probably doesn't bode well for the NDP," Tomblin said.