John Haggie's Easter gift to you? A good — and warranted — scare

It's perhaps fitting that in the lead-up to Easter — the most important date in the Christian calendar, in which the devout honour an ultimate sacrifice that is the foundation of their faith — public health officials in Newfoundland and Labrador have urged people to sacrifice some traditions of their own.

It wasn't just fish and chips on Good Friday (although stores evidently found contact-free ways to dish them up) but other things that people enjoy every year. Maybe it's a solemn weekend; maybe it's a booze-up; maybe it's a bit of both. It's a long weekend filled with traditions like, say, driving to Nan's, or a big family feast, or a blowout at the cabin.

On Tuesday, Health Minister John Haggie laid out his cards about what an Easter weekend should look like, while the health system is fighting back against COVID-19.

"This weekend is crucial," Haggie said. "If we do not change our behaviour, our children, our elderly relatives, our wives and family will pay the price in 10 to 14 days' time."

Haggie has evidently become fascinating to a lot of people who find the daily afternoon briefing a kind of appointment viewing in the midst of self-isolation. With his Manchester accent, his plain way of talking has inspired memes (some with embroidery, no less) and tribute videos on Facebook, and no end of chatter on social media.

"We need to get this right this weekend," Haggie urged, adding that all kinds of activities that until now were perfectly normal — from simply going to church to bringing the generations together for a meal — are now to be avoided.

"These gatherings are now dangerous," said Haggie.

Models and behaviours

That was Tuesday's message. On Wednesday came another — and while the government's models of what might happen with COVID-19 were not overtly terrifying, they're certainly enough to make anyone worry.

These forecasts have been pretty startling in other parts of the country, such as Ontario and Alberta, where worst-case scenarios involving death tolls leapt out at people.

The N.L. models, as yet, do not include deaths. One key reason: there is not yet enough data yet to be helpful.

This province has had three deaths attributed to COVID-19, all of them tragic. Yet, statistically, it is too small a number to make a meaningful projection. Somewhat grimly, more deaths will need to be recorded for the next forecasts — and do expect to hear much more about these changing models in the months (yes, months) to come — to provide a better insight.

The models are already chilling enough, though. One possibility is running out of intensive-care beds as early as June. Another is seeing half the province infected with the virus that causes COVID-19 within two years. A better-case scenario — at least for now — has COVID-19 peaking in November. That's right: November, or about seven months from now.

Does that mean we'll all be at home until then? Not necessarily, but perhaps.

Even though Haggie cautioned, again and again, that these projections are "fuzzy," the November element really seemed to smack people. 

In one Facebook group, a much-shared post urged people to "prove them wrong" about that prediction … and to stay home. Which is exactly Haggie's advice. 

There's the big disconnect. In order to save lives now, we have to flatten the curve, and that means the curve will need to extend and extend. The longer, the better — for the health system — not to mention the survival of you and the ones you love. 

But the longer the curve lasts, the greater the impact on the economy, society, the way we live our lives. 

A little fear can be a good motivator

These things are scary, and, well, that's kind of the point. No one wants to be a fearmonger, but a warranted scare can be helpful for improving behaviours.

That's what's underlining Haggie's warnings and pleas.

As the eloquent Dr. Proton Rahman explained during Wednesday's prime-time briefing, the public health measures that the government has taken are proving to be effective already.

He pointed to a spike of cases that arose from what became known as the "Caul's cluster" around March 23. "[It was] almost like the COVID virus sprinted out of the gate and there had been exponential growth.… This would have been catastrophic for the health-care system," he said.

But exponential growth did not follow. Instead, the number dropped, and the curve began to flatten.

"You have to ask yourself, what happened? What happened is public health measures," said Rahman, a Memorial University medical professor and one of the province's top data experts.

Manual contact tracing — still the gold standard in public health work, and a kind of detective work that is not well understood in the public eye — helped, as did orders for the infected to quarantine.

The bigger public effort — closure of non-essential businesses, a shuttering of schools and services, and a ban on groups larger than five — is also a key factor.

"Everything that we're actually doing, as hard as it is, has had a huge impact," Rahman said.

So … we're good?

Not at all. Haggie, Rahman and Dr. Janice Fitzgerald, the province's chief medical officer of health, have all said that just one aberration can create another huge spike, and send the province into chaos.

Moreover, giving up good habits now — and yes, just once, over a long weekend like this one — could cause considerable harm.

"We must keep the pedal to the floor," Fitzgerald cautioned the public Wednesday night. "Now is not the time to become complacent."

The other side of Easter

Haggie's focus this week has been on this weekend. But his mind has also been on the weeks ahead.

He noted, in an interview with The St. John's Morning Show on Thursday, that while there are expectations of a sunny summer, he'd prefer to see something else: rain, every day.

What he really wants, though, is to see a solid planking in the curve.

The curve's path is not certain. To keep it moving in the right direction will mean work by hundreds of thousands of individuals.

A bit of fear — the productive kind — may well be the key ingredient that will keep us safe.

Easter, after all, is not only about sacrifice, but regeneration. Whether you're spiritual or not, you'll need to take part for the brighter days to arrive. 

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