Grocers say prices in some northern communities protected from tariffs, for now

Two grocery chains that serve the North say stores in remote communities that rely on large, infrequent shipments of non-perishable goods are shielded from the effects of Canadian counter-tariffs – at least, for now.

Stores operated by the Northwest Company in the Sahtu and Beaufort Delta region of the N.W.T., for example, have just filled their warehouses with goods for the upcoming season using the winter road, said Mike Beaulieu, the company's vice president of Canadian store operations. 

"Those goods have all been purchased long before any of this tariff nonsense started, and those goods are in our warehouse and ready to serve communities for the upcoming year," he said. 

Beaulieu said those stores typically rely on the winter road and the summer barge season to haul in goods, but after some barge trips were called off in 2023 and the entire season was cancelled in 2024 because of low water, it's planning to rely more on the winter road season. 

Duane Wilson, the vice president of stakeholder relations for Arctic Co-operatives which has a network of 32 community co-op businesses in the three territories, said stores that rely on sea lifts also have a "buffer" from the tariffs. 

But, he pointed out, what gives remote communities protection now might hurt later down the road. If a store wants to load up on a year's worth of shelf-stable goods to reduce transportation costs while Canadian counter-tariffs are still in place – it would be locking in that higher price for the better part of the year. 

Where you'll feel the pinch at the grocery store

Michael von Massow, a food economist at the University of Guelph in Ontario, says Canadian counter-tariffs put on 30 billion dollars' worth of American goods imported into the country have been chosen strategically. 

For example, he said, there are now tariffs on American dairy products which "represents a very small proportion [of dairy products in Canada]." 

He said he doesn't expect to see much impact from those tariffs on Canadian consumers because there are plenty of Canadian products to choose from that won't be more expensive. 

For other goods and products – like oranges and grapefruits – there isn't a Canadian option to choose.

Von Massow said his household has swapped for Turkish or Moroccan oranges instead. They're also choosing to eat Canadian produce that's in season as well, choosing locally-grown carrots, beets and potatoes over broccoli and Brussels sprouts. 

Von Massow doesn't expect prices to change much at grocery stores unless a second round of Canadian counter-tariffs takes effect as promised in three weeks. 

Moshe Lander, a senior lecturer in the department of economics at Concordia University in Montreal, said the effect of tariffs will depend on how long they last. 

"If this is merely going to be a week and they go away, maybe Loblaws eats it on the bottom line in the name of consumer loyalty," he said. But if grocers think the tariffs will last for an indefinite period of time, he said, they're going to pass it on to consumers. 

Lander said the effects of tariffs will start in the produce section and work its way into the bakery, the dairy section, and eventually into meat products as well. Both Lander and von Massow said that Canada has a thriving poultry industry of its own. 

Von Mossow said while Canada has its own pork and beef industry too, those products might travel to the States for processing before winding back in Canada, making it hard to define them as American or Canadian products. 

But, Lander said, northern communities understand better than southern Canada the importance of supply chains and what the smallest of disruptions can do.

"Northern communities might suffer just like everybody else, but they might be a little more equipped" to deal with it, he said.