Population estimates vary for Yellowknife as city council mulls Kam Lake expansion

How much has Yellowknife grown over the last decade?

That depends on who you ask, and how they came up with their population estimates — and it's an issue that could affect how the city makes planning decisions.  

Last week, city council debated whether to expand the Kam Lake light industrial area. As part of those discussions, a market study was presented at the meeting by FBM, a planning and design firm, showing about a 25 per cent population increase in the city between 2016 to 2024. The firm later corrected those figures, putting the population increase closer to 15 per cent over that period.

That's still more growth than suggested by the N.W.T. Bureau of Statistics' numbers. The bureau estimates there was a five per cent population increase, with 21,359 Yellowknife residents in 2016 and 22,297 in 2024.

Jeff Barichello, the N.W.T's territorial statistician, says the bureau's numbers more closely reflect population counts in the territory.

However, Kieron Hunt, FMB's lead consultant on the Kam Lake study, said his firm stands behind its own figures, which put the city's population at 23,629 people in 2024 — over 1,300 more people than counted by the N.W.T. Bureau of Statistics.

Hunt says FMB's numbers were provided by Manifold Data Mining. Hunt said Manifold measures and analyzes where people may have been under-counted.

Barichello said that's something the bureau does as well, using Statistics Canada data to analyze where people may have been missed by the federal census.

"That's why the population estimate from the Bureau of Statistics is higher than the census count. It's because it accounts for the net under-coverage," said Barichello.

Hunt says Manifold's 2024 numbers are higher because it accounts for more under-coverage than the Statistics Canada data does. He cites the COVID-19 pandemic and wildfires as factors that may have hampered census enumeration in 2021.

"The 2021 census meaningfully undercounted people in N.W.T., young people, rural people, and Indigenous people," wrote Hunt in an email to CBC News.

Both Hunt and Barichello said their numbers take births, deaths and migration into account.

Population growth only one factor in analysis, says firm

Hunt said population growth is just one factor in its analysis of the proposed Kam Lake expansion. He said the study also draws on other things such as employment growth and the availability of industrial space compared to the population.

Hunt also said that the estimated 600,000 square feet of development space needed in Kam Lake over the next 20 years wouldn't change much even if population numbers were slightly adjusted.

The proposed expansion of the industrial area has some residents in the area divided. Some people who live or work in the area attended public sessions about the proposal.

Kyle Thomas, co-owner of Bush Order Provisions, believes if the plan moves ahead that space should be utilized for small-scale businesses that grow the local economy.

Adrian Bell, owner of Century 21 in Yellowknife, said the city needs to have land available for the future but said speed in the development of both industrial and residential land is important.

"The demand for housing and for residential land is already great — arguably much greater than the demand for light industrial land. So the order in which things are being done, I would say, is a little bit perplexing," said Bell.

The proposed industrial development area would be near Grace Lake Blvd. Bell said the current value and use of the forested space is something to weigh carefully.

"They're considering taking green spaces and developing them. I think when you make a promise to the residents, certainly a council's got to be able to change their mind, but there should have to be a significant, overwhelming argument to do so. And I just don't see that," said Bell.