Yukon gov't again reports emissions down per resident, while total emissions continue to climb

Each Yukoner appears to be responsible for fewer greenhouse gas emissions, but population growth may be undermining progress on reducing the territory's overall emissions, suggests a new report.

Carbon emissions across the Yukon continue to rise, states the territory's latest progress report on Our Clean Future, its climate change strategy.

The report, released Tuesday, says that in 2022 emissions on a per-person basis decreased by about 12 per cent. Emissions linked to economic growth also decreased, by 17 per cent.

More people, though, mean emissions, and at least on the face of it, that appears to be affecting gains. 

The Yukon's population has increased by 26 per cent over 12 years. Emissions likewise have increased, by six percentage points compared to 2010 levels, which doesn't account for the mining industry (dealing with mining emissions is part of a separate process). In total, the jump in emissions is even higher, at 10 per cent over that period.

For comparison, emissions in 2021 increased by one per cent, excluding mining; the year before, by three per cent.

Still, ministers and civil servants say don't fret — numbers like these are in keeping with what the Our Clean Future plan sets out to accomplish by the end of the decade, which is a 45 per cent reduction in emissions — a goal that at least one advisory group said would require a "war-like" effort to pull off.

As they say, context matters. The report states two years ago, with the Yukon emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic, residents began to travel again. The economy started to recover, too. People started to migrate again, some settling in places like the Yukon. 

The territory's energy minister says the increases in emissions aren't surprising and that he expected them.

"While our population and economy continues to grow, our greenhouse gas emissions are not growing at the same rate. The decoupling of our greenhouse gas emissions from population and economic growth is a positive sign that our efforts to start reducing emissions are working," said Minister John Streicker.

Two years ago, emissions per capita were also decreasing while overall emissions were still up. 

The report states there's a reporting lag time of two years because of the time it takes for the federal government to compile and analyze the data. 

Shane Andre, the director of the territory's energy branch, said that's important context to consider.

Andre said that in 2022, the climate change plan had only been in place for two years, and that Yukoners have yet to really see the benefits of various actions — of which there are 178, including things like home retrofits, electric vehicles and heat pumps — pay off. 

"All of our actions are more or less on track as to where we thought they would be. You don't expect huge emissions reductions right away. Those will come later," Andre said.

"I think the population growth does make things increasingly challenging, but otherwise we seem to be doing well in implementing our plan to this point."

Transportation sector still biggest emitter

Most of the territory's emissions are from transportation, which accounts for more than half of total carbon emissions, the report states. After that, it's heating and electricity.

It appears gas and diesel vehicles still rule the road. Respectively — and not including mining — they represent 23 and 15 per cent of emissions.

The report states as of last year 344 electric vehicles were registered in the territory, and all communities with road access have chargers for them. More than 150 heating devices, including heating pumps and thermal storage systems, have also been installed.

Rebecca Turpin, director of the territory's climate change secretariat, said emissions from aviation are among the most notable changes, jumping by about 52 per cent from last year. 

She said while that proves there's still much work ahead, things are trending in the right direction.

"As the population grows, we aren't seeing the emissions increase to match," she said. "This is a promising sign that the emissions intensity of everyday life for Yukoners may be starting to decrease."