Graham Steele: An exciting political year ahead
What will be the big political issues in Nova Scotia next year?
In Nova Scotia politics, 2015 will be much more exciting than 2014, and thank goodness for that.
The studies are in. It’s time for decisions.
The new year will bring a cascade of political challenges.
Those challenges will, finally, reveal the character of the McNeil government. Will they meet the challenges with honest communication, brave choices, and determined action? Or will they prevaricate, waffle, and postpone?
Challenges in January and February
The decisions start in early January, when we will see the government’s response to the Freeman report on education. Already there has been a protest from parents concerned about an end to the policy of inclusion.
In mid-January we’ll hear the arbitrator’s ruling on union re-alignment in health care. And that’s before the main event, which will unfold throughout 2015: the McNeil government’s first big round of collective bargaining. They talk tough, but where will they draw the line? And will they stick to it?
In February we hit the first anniversary of the Ivany report on economic development prospects for Nova Scotia. The “Now or Never” urgency of Ivany has evaporated, replaced by a vague sense that somebody, somewhere, is working on something. That’s no way for the McNeil government to build the social consensus they’ll need to carry off any big changes. Their instinct for secrecy, if it continues, will hurt them in the long run.
Budget in April
In early April, we’ll see the next Liberal budget. It will encapsulate what the Liberals are all about in 2015.
More than anything, the next budget has to square the impossible circle of public finance: unless you hit a royalties gusher, you can’t simultaneously keep taxes level, improve public services, and move closer to a balanced budget. Which will the McNeil Liberals choose to jettison?
On budget day we’ll finally hear the results of the Liberals’ program review. The premier personally chaired the review committee. The finance minister described the process as “laborious.” Yet it has all taken place behind closed doors. What will they cut? A similar process under John Hamm’s government produced meagre results.
On budget day we’ll also find out the government’s take on the Broten taxation report. That report asks the government to do 16 impossible things before breakfast — like freeze spending for the rest of its mandate, eliminate tax credits for volunteer firefighters, cut taxes for the rich, and put the HST back on power, diapers, and books. The payoff is supposed to be lower personal and corporate taxes, which should theoretically lead to more economic growth. The report’s author says it’s a package, but watch for Finance Minister Diana Whalen to cherry-pick carefully.
Federal election will dominate
The next year in provincial politics will be dominated by federal politics.
That’s because a federal campaign sucks volunteers, money, and energy from provincial politics, and we’ve entered an era of American-style federal campaigns that last for many months prior to the official election period.
The election is scheduled for October, but there’s a very good chance Prime Minister Stephen Harper will choose to go earlier. Mindful of the drip-drip damage that the Gomery Commission wreaked on Paul Martin’s Liberals, Harper may want to get out ahead of the Mike Duffy trial.
The federal Liberals have high hopes in Nova Scotia.
Their best-case scenario sees them combine the Trudeau and McNeil honeymoon effects, and picking up as many as nine of Nova Scotia’s 11 seats. (Even they have to admit that nobody’s going to beat the two Peters — Stoffer and MacKay.)
Their worst-case scenario sees a controversial provincial budget delivered just before, or during, the federal campaign.
So if there is a federal election in the spring, watch for the provincial budget to be postponed until it’s all over.
Talk or walk?
Yes, this will be the year that the McNeil government reveals its character.
By the end of the year, they will be more than halfway through their mandate, and the principal thought from that point forward will be how to get re-elected.
Between now and then, will we see boldness or caution? Far-sightedness or myopia? Talk or walk?
Hold on tight. It’s going to be exciting.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
