N.S. Tories are poised to form a supermajority. What does that mean?
Polls suggest Progressive Conservatives will win a 2nd term, gain seats
As Nova Scotia's election campaign comes to a close, polls suggest the Progressive Conservatives will not only stay in power for a second term, but gain power by moving from a majority to a supermajority.
The difference is potentially significant.
In Nova Scotia, a supermajority holds two-thirds of the seats — under the current makeup of the House of Assembly that means 38 out of 55.
Two-thirds is also the fraction required to change the procedural rules of the House, so with a supermajority, the government doesn't need the co-operation of opposition parties.
There are dozens of these rules and they range from a requirement to hold a daily moment of quiet reflection before starting House business to parameters around who can speak during debate and for how long.
There is a modern tradition in Nova Scotia of opposition parties using House procedures as tools to express dissent, extend debate and slow the passage of legislation. It's one of the only levers available to opposition parties to control the House when there's a majority government that is largely unfettered in its ability to turn bills into law.
For example, last fall, opposition Liberal and NDP MLAs regularly took the full hour allotted to them to speak during debate and called for recorded votes, initiating the ringing of bells to alert members. The bells suspend all House business and they can ring for up to an hour.
The opposition parties said they were doing it because they believed Tim Houston's PC government was trying to push through legislation and wrap up the sitting too quickly. It became a game of tit-for-tat as the government extended House hours.
Customary hours are 1 p.m. to 6 p.m., but Tory House leader Kim Masland called for business to run from 1 p.m. to 11:59 p.m.
The same rules apply for standing committees. A supermajority could change a committee's mandate and who sits on it, or it could get rid of a committee entirely. It could also create new ones.
The PCs were ahead in public opinion polls at the start of the campaign and seem to have maintained that position over the past month. They may have even picked up steam.
One of the latest polls, released last week by MQO Research, found 51 per cent out of a sample of 500 voters have decided to vote for the Progressive Conservatives or are leaning that way, followed by 24 per cent for the NDP and 22 per cent for the Liberals.
MQO's results came from a mix of online and telephone interviews conducted from Nov. 14 to Nov. 20 — the week following CBC's leaders' debate.
Lori Turnbull, a political science professor at Dalhousie University, said she thinks the polls are correct in predicting a PC majority. The real question, she said, is who will come second and form the Official Opposition — the NDP or the Liberals.
Turnbull said one of the challenges in this campaign is that all three parties have focused on the same issues: housing, health care and affordability.
On some issues, they're even making the same or similar promises. For instance, on tax cuts. The Liberals have promised to cut HST by two points while the PCs have promised to cut it by one point, and they have both promised to raise the basic personal exemption on income tax.
The Liberals and NDP both promised to take HST off any grocery items that still have it, while the NDP also promised to take HST off cellphone and internet bills and heat pumps, and provide a temporary holiday from tax on gasoline.
"They could all switch speaking notes and you would barely know the difference," Turnbull said of the party leaders.
She said voters have to decide who they trust to deliver on the promises.
Turnbull said Liberal Leader Zach Churchill has the challenge of still being held accountable for the record of Stephen McNeil's government, while NDP Leader Claudia Chender has the challenge of building her public profile after just two years as leader of a third-place party.
Erin Crandall, a professor in Acadia University's politics department, also said consensus on key issues has posed a problem for the parties in this campaign.
She noted that it's a stark contrast to the 2021 election when the PCs "owned health care," and surged into power.
"I think, in this election, voters will have a bit of a harder time understanding which policy is going to best fit what they think their needs are," she said.
Crandall said she thinks the polls should be considered with some caution. She said polls typically look at the overall vote and not individual ridings.
Additionally, she said a danger of poll results that indicate a runaway victory is that they could dampen voter turnout, as people expect their vote to be irrelevant.
Crandall said fatigue from the recent municipal election and from observing the American presidential election could add to voter apathy, as well as the fact that Houston called the election eight months earlier than it was expected.
"If one of the headlines the day after the election is, 'Historically low turnout in this Nova Scotia election,' I wouldn't be surprised. I hope not … but I wouldn't be surprised."
Corrections
- A supermajority in the Nova Scotia Legislature requires winning 38 seats — 37 seats plus a Speaker. A previous version of this story contained an incorrect number, this version has been corrected.Nov 27, 2024 12:22 PM AT
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