Poll suggests PCs hold a commanding lead in Nova Scotia election

New poll results released by Narrative Research suggest the Progressive Conservatives are heading into Tuesday's provincial election with a commanding lead over their political rivals.

"Findings suggest the PCs will achieve a majority win in the upcoming election," Margaret Brigley, CEO of the Halifax-based company, said in a news release Wednesday. "The question now is which party will be the official opposition."

A telephone survey conducted from Nov. 4 to Nov. 17 asked 800 voters who they would vote for. Twenty-four per cent said they were undecided or didn't know. Five per cent refused to say, and another five per cent said they did not plan to vote. 

The 526 decided voters surveyed were asked which party they will cast a ballot for in the Nova Scotia election.

• 44 per cent said the PCs.
• 28 per cent said the NDP.
• 24 per cent said the Liberals.
• Three per cent said the Greens.
• One per cent said an Independent candidate.

Those results are considered accurate within 4.3 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

"Our seat projection model suggests that second place is currently too close to call, and that the outcome will be largely dependent on who gets out to vote," Brigley said in the release.

"Females and younger residents (18-34yrs) are notably more likely to vote NDP than Liberal."

At dissolution, the PCs held 34 seats, the Liberals had 14, the New Democrats held six and there was one Independent.

A smaller sample size of respondents from the Halifax region, with a greater margin of error, suggests tighter races in the capital region, primarily between the PCs and the NDP.

Of the 256 people surveyed in Halifax Regional Municipality, 39 per cent supported the PCs compared to 35 per cent for the NDP. The Liberals had 21 per cent support in the urban and suburban area of Halifax.

In a sample size of 203 respondents, the PCs received the strongest support in the rural parts of the province at 49 per cent, followed by the Liberals with 24 per cent support and the NDP with the backing of 21 per cent of those polled.

Pollsters asked 800 people who they'd prefer most as premier. Thirty-five per cent of them picked PC Leader Tim Houston, 23 per cent chose the NDP's Claudia Chender, and Liberal Leader Zach Churchill won 18 per cent support.

Twenty-three per cent said they preferred none of the candidates, didn't know or wouldn't answer.