Here's what Saskatchewanians can expect at the pumps without the carbon tax levy

On Tuesday, the federal government paused the consumer carbon tax nationwide, but people in Saskatchewan claim they haven't seen prices drop as much as they'd like. 

"That's good for the province that we're carbon tax free, not happy with the price of fuel it didn't drop as much as it's supposed to though," said Terry Orban, a motorist in Regina. 

Up until yesterday, the tax translated to about $0.18 per litre, which is the drop motorist were hoping to see at gas stations in Saskatchewan. 

According to GasBuddy analysts, Saskatchewan has seen about a $0.13 price drop since Sunday, which experts say is on par with other provinces. 

"According to our data, the average price on Sunday was 157 in Regina. Now we're down to an average of 144.1, so almost a $0.13 litre drop," said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. 

"This is kind of a fairly typical decrease of about $0.13 a litre." 

De Haan says it's typical for gas prices to go up this time of year, and the province should maybe even expect to see an increase over the following weeks. 

"We're making the transition from winter gasoline to summer gasoline. That's basically why we saw the increase here over the last couple of days prior to the carbon tax pause was because of the transition to summer gasoline, which is more expensive." 

De Haan also addressed concerns over gas stations and oil companies raising prices before Tuesday's tax cut. 

"There's a lot of cynical folks who think this is somehow, you know, the oil companies raise prices to offset the carbon tax. But a lot of this is seasonal, gas prices have gone up across much of Canada and the United States over the last week,"  said De Haan. 

Several factors keeping prices up

Richard Masson, an executive fellow at the University of Calgary's School of Public Policy, says it's important to keep in mind that recent actions from U.S president Donald Trump have lead to higher gasoline and diesel prices across the globe. 

"He's putting pressure on Iran about its nuclear program and that's restricting the amount of oil they can produce and he's, in the last few days, said he's angry with Russia and he's going to put more pressure on them about their dark market oil exports," said Masson. 

Masson says that the price of Canadian currency also drives up oil prices for us. 

"When the Canadian dollar is weaker, it means the gasoline price in Canadian dollars gets a little bit higher, and so we've had a weak Canadian dollar." 

Masson also pointed out that due to factors such as seasonal changes and refinery maintenance, prices in the province typically trend higher this time of year. 

"Refineries need to switch the quality of fuel to make sure that there's less vapour coming out of the gasoline, and for environmental purposes. That adds a little bit of cost right around this time of year." 

Based on these factors, De Haan expects Saskatchewan residents to see a trending high for the next couple weeks, but then prices will start to trend lower into the rest of the year. 

"Without the carbon tax pause, gas prices would be another $0.17 a litre higher," said De Haan.

"So I know folks don't always think that it works the way they want it to, but there's many factors that can drive oil prices up or down and other factors that can layer together."