Blue wall beats back red wave in Sask., while NDP support crumbles
Conservatives, Liberals increased share of popular vote while NDP dropped by half
Pollsters never predicted a Saskatchewan seat might go orange, but the near disappearance of the federal NDP vote here and across the country might be the story of election night, according to one political watcher.
"This is a really bad night for the NDP," said Daniel Westlake, University of Saskatchewan assistant professor of political studies. "The NDP bled a lot of votes to the Liberals."
Strategic voting was a hot topic this election. It factored into the final results nationally if not making much of an impact in Saskatchewan, though it likely contributed to the collapse of the NDP vote is some ridings here, Westlake said.
"Some of that was strategic voting, some of that was about who was going to deal better with Donald Trump," he said. "It was very clear that the NDP were not going to be elected and so the answer to that question was not Jagmeet Singh."
Liberal candidate Buckley Belanger is projected to win Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River, the lone Liberal from Saskatchewan heading to Ottawa.
Conservatives won the 13 other ridings without much competition. The NDP ran third in every riding.
Liberal Leader Mark Carney made two campaign stops in Saskatoon, including one on the eve of Election Day that signalled the party's high hopes of flipping a seat in the city. While Saskatchewan-specific polling suggested tight races in Saskatoon-University, Saskatoon West and Regina-Wascana, Conservatives held on to all three.
All three national campaigns eventually stopped in Saskatoon. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh held an event in the city on the same day early in April when Carney first stopped here, while Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre appeared in Saskatoon late in the campaign.
As of early Tuesday morning, the Saskatchewan popular vote breakdown stood at 64.8 per cent for the Conservatives (up 6 per cent from the 2021 election), 26.4 per cent for the Liberals (up 15.9), and 7.5 per cent for the NDP (down 13.5 per cent).
Westlake suspects Conservatives increased their support by picking up anti-incumbent — that is, anti-Liberal — votes.
"The polls were showing the Conservatives up around where they had been at the the high end of the Harper years, so seeing the Conservatives doing well is not a surprise given what we saw during the campaign," he said.
"And then the progressive vote just seems to have consolidated behind the Liberals, and the NDP has not been able to do much about that."
Outside of the cities and Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River in the north, Conservatives won handedly in most other constituencies. Conservative candidates won by more than 75 per cent in Battlefords-Lloydminster-Meadow Lake, Carlton Trail-Eagle Creek, Swift Current-Grasslands-Kindersley, Yorkton-Melville and Souris-Moose Mountain, which had the largest margin of victory at 83.9 per cent as of 12:00 a.m. Tuesday.
Two Saskatoon constituencies were the closest races and the only Conservative seats won with less than 50 per cent of the vote. In Saskatoon-University, Conservatives took 49 per cent of the vote compared to the Liberals' 41.2 per cent. Saskatoon South saw similar splits at 49.6 per cent Conservative to 40.2 per cent Liberal.
You have to go back more than 30 years to find the last Liberals elected in Saskatoon.
Georgette Sheridan and Morris Bodnar were elected in 1993 when the Jean Chrétien-led Liberal Party returned to government. They each served one term and were both defeated by Reform Party candidates in the 1997 election.
Belanger is a likely candidate for cabinet as the lone Liberal MP in Saskatchewan, Westlake said.
"And that comes with some policy influence. And so having somebody like Belanger with experience in provincial politics, with experience working in the governing party ... having that voice around the cabinet table is probably significant."
A minority government or even a very narrow majority government could also be a boon for backbench Liberal MPs, Westlake said.
"It's going to be very close and so the Liberals can't afford to lose a seat," he said. "They can't afford to alienate any of their members. And that should give each of their members a lot more ability to influence policy."
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
