Northern Sask. riding could be island of Liberal red in sea of Tory blue, projection modelling suggests

Saskatchewan's northern riding of Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River could flip to Liberal red from its current Conservative blue in the next federal election, projection modelling suggests.

The riding comprises nearly the entire northern half of the province, but with a fraction of the population (about 37,845 people, according to Elections Canada).

When the federal government began the process to redefine electoral boundaries in 2022 — a non-partisan review required every 10 years — some communities that voted heavily Conservative in the previous election were moved to other federal ridings.

The 338Canada project, an election projection model based on opinion polls, electoral history and demographic data, suggests the Liberals could win 56 per cent of the vote, plus/-minus 14 per cent, in Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River, with the Conservatives garnering 26 per cent of the vote, plus/minus 12 per cent.

In the 2021 election, the Meadow Lake region had the most valid votes at the polls (about 2,450) and the vast majority were garnered by now-former MP Gary Vidal (about 65.8 per cent), the Conservative incumbent at the time.

According to Elections Canada, if the new boundaries had been in place during the 2021 election, the Liberals would have won the seat.

Éric Grenier, a polls analyst and the creator of thewrit.ca, says Conservatives won the seat comfortably in 2021 with support from Meadow Lake. He says the Conservatives would have finished third behind the Liberals if the redrawn boundaries had been in place.

"If the Liberals form the government and they have a seat from Saskatchewan, that means at least they'll have one voice from Saskatchewan in the caucus," Grenier said.

"One of the issues that the Liberals have had over the last few elections is they've had very few MPs from Western Canada outside of British Columbia and Winnipeg," he said.

The other top voting areas in the riding — including La Ronge, Spiritwood, Christopher Lake, Creighton and Debden — also voted Conservative. In fact, the top eight regions that put forward the most valid votes (not including mail-in ballots) opted for the Tories.

The issue for the Conservatives is that all of those communities, with the exception of La Ronge and Creighton, are no longer within the northern electoral boundary.

"You have basically taken a bunch of conservative voters and moved them into ridings that kind of border Prince Albert or that are further south of that riding," said Daniel Westlake, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Saskatchewan.

He says Saskatchewan's rural population is strongly conservative — until you get farther north: "I would suggest this is a northern Prairie riding that just is more open to progressives than most other rural Prairie ridings and probably will continue to be like that."

Over the past nearly three decades, the region has ping-ponged among the three major parties: the Conservative Party of Canada, the Liberal Party of Canada and the New Democratic Party.

As of Monday morning, three candidates in the riding have been confirmed by Elections Canada:

• Jim Lemaigre, Conservative Party of Canada.
• Buckley Belanger, Liberal Party of Canada.
• Doug Racine, federal New Democratic Party.

The Green Party has listed Jacqueline Hanson as their candidate for the riding. The People's Party of Canada does not have a candidate for the region listed on their website.

Cost of living front of mind

In the province's north, the cost of living is higher. 

At Northern Store, the local grocery store in Stony Rapids, the cost of a 10-kilogram bag of flour is more than $40, while a three-litre bottle of olive oil runs for more than $70.

Residents who spoke with CBC said the cost of living was among their top election priorities. 

"As you'll see, we have probably some of the most expensive milk and eggs in the whole country," Brandon Calvert said. "They complain about the egg prices in the States, but our eggs are always probably three, four times more than theirs are right now." 

He suggested the government could subsidize freight costs to help reduce prices at the till.

Shaun Suski, a staunch Conservative supporter living in Creighton, about 430 kilometres northeast of Saskatoon, says his monthly electrical bill is more than $1,000 during the winter months. 

"Cost of living up here has gone up quite a bit, fuel is high, all that and carbon tax — it's hurting us for sure," he said. "Anything that we could get rid of taxes and help us save a little more and put more in our pocket is great for us."

He's hesitant to trust polling suggesting Saskatchewan's northern riding could fall to the Liberals.

And while the Liberal government recently pulled back the consumer carbon tax, Suski feels more comfortable voting for the party that has argued in favour of removing the tax long before the election was called.

"I find [the Liberals] are just saying it now because it is election time," he said. "Before, when it was always brought up, they always fought it."

Suksi says crime is also an issue in the region, leading him to lean toward Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and his tough-on-crime mentality.

Voter keeps an eye on rabbits

Vince Ahenakew, a long-time Liberal supporter living in Île-à-la-Crosse, is backing a red-led north and, in doing so, he's keeping a watchful eye of the rabbits.

"Kâ mihcåtitwâw wâposhwak êkota anima Lî liberal ta otahowêwak," [If there's a lot of rabbits during election season, the Liberals are going to win] he said, explaining he heard the Northern Michif phrase from elders.

"And usually, they're right," he laughed.

Ahenakew says he supports the Liberals because he believes their administration has best supported the country's Indigenous population.

Île-à-la-Crosse, a community of about 1,425  located about 376 kilometres northwest of Saskatoon, voted Liberal in 2021. Of the top 10 communities with the most total valid votes cast, it was the only one to vote Liberal.

Ahenakew says there are social and health issues in the north — including mental health and drug use — he believes could be partially resolved by better connecting with Indigenous culture. As well, he added, people in the north don't have the same easy access to medical and dental services as those in the south.  

Since the northern population has to pay more in travel to access those services, he says, they should not be taxed the same. Road infrastructure, education and employment are also top issues for him.

And while he's a Liberal supporter, he wished luck to candidates in every party.

"They all want what is best for Canada," Ahenakew said.