Campaigns not polls will decide federal election, former northern Ontario politicians say

Two former politicians and one soon-to-be former politician from across northern Ontario, and across the political spectrum, are cautioning against reading too much into early polling numbers as Canadians march toward the April 28 federal election.

Instead they say the real battle will play out on the ground — through door-knocking, voter engagement and issue-focused campaigning.

"Obviously, numbers are are good, but you know, in 2008 and 2011 and 2014 I had polling numbers telling me I was going to lose, and I won. And then in 2018 the polling numbers said I had a chance to win, and I lost," said Glenn Thibeault, who served as both Sudbury MP representing the federal NDP, and then as Liberal MPP at Queen's Park. 

"Polling numbers — take them with a grain of salt, because at the end of the day, what you need to do is have hard work."

Carol Hughes—the NDP MP for Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing, who is retiring as her riding disappears from a redrawn electoral map— also pushed warned against putting too much stock in polling. 

"For years we've seen where the pollsters have indicated that the NDP wouldn't do very well, would lose their status, would disappear from the map," she said.

"And I think that there's some people that would like to see that, but for the most part, what we have seen is that we've been able to punch above."

Morning North17:34Federal politics panel

We're in a federal election campaign and no one knows what it's like to run in an election more than people who have done it. Tony Clement was both a federal and provincial politician for the Conservatives. Glenn Thibeault was both a federal and provincial politician representing Sudbury, first for the NDP in Ottawa and then the Liberals at Queen's Park. Carol Hughes is the NDP for Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing and is not running in the next election.

Campaign strategy 

There are five weeks of campaigning before Canadians head to the polls and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is "off to a good start," according to former Parry Sound-Muskoka MP Tony Clement.

"[Poilievre] has some very substantive policy issues that he's addressed, including a 15 per cent tax cut, and I think you're going to see that throughout the campaign that he has thought about the issues," said Clement, who served as both a federal and provincial cabinet minister. 

Hughes suggests that while smaller parties like the Green Party and the Bloc Québécois may have some impact, she thinks voters will ultimately focus on which party can deliver concrete results for Canadians during challenging economic times.

She believes the NDP will emphasize their track record of helping people during inflationary periods, hoping voters will see them as the best choice.

"We're certainly not going to be looking at pushing forward on the big spending that the Conservatives and the Liberals always do," she said. "They talk about tax cuts, but those tax cuts really just benefit the millionaires and the billionaires."

Hughes criticized Prime Minister and Liberal leader Mark Carney, who pledged a one-point tax cut to the first income bracket and Poilievre's similar pledge of a 2.25 per cent tax cut.

She argued that their proposed tax cuts for the first income bracket primarily benefit wealthy individuals rather than those earning $60,000 or less.

But according to Thibeault, the Liberal tax reduction strategy aims to increase affordability by keeping more money in people's pockets, citing Carney's recent move to cancel the proposed hike to the capital gains tax. 

He argued that Carney's approach focuses on helping those at $60,000 and below by providing tax relief that will encourage people to spend money, addressing the broader issue of global inflation.

The battle for seats in northern Ontario

Hughes said she feels northeastern Ontario will be hurt by sending six MPs to Ottawa instead of seven, believing that is has made it more difficult to recruit candidates. 

"It was really unfortunate to see that the Conservatives weren't supportive of maintaining all the seats that we had in northern Ontario," she said. "I think really it's the voters at the end of the day, the northerners at the end of the day, that are the losers."

According to Thibeault, northern Ontario represents a critical region for Canadian sovereignty, with strategic border towns like Sault Ste. Marie and economic centres like Sudbury. He said the area's resources are essential to national economic and strategic interests.

As for the Conservatives, they're hoping to breakthrough in northern Ontario this election. 

"Northern Ontario punches above its weight and will be not only critical in the election, but I think post election, because of critical minerals being such an important aspect of going forward with our sovereignty and with our economic development that that will continue," Clement said.