The race is on: Ontario's NDP and Liberals battle to claim their place as the best choice against Ford
Experts say the parties will have to battle for the same pool of left-leaning voters
As Ontario's election campaign kicks off, experts say the fight is on between the provincial New Democrats and Liberals to stake out their place as the main rival to Progressive Conservative Leader Doug Ford.
Both NDP Leader Marit Stiles and Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie have come out of the gate trying to strike contrasts with each other on style and substance, and have already exchanged verbal barbs. Experts says it's all part of the so-called "progressive primary", the fight between Ontario's centre-left parties to become a competitive alternative to the PCs.
During her campaign launch this week, Stiles likened the Liberals to a car in the repair shop, making a direct appeal to their traditional voters.
"Today's Liberal leader would be right at home as a cabinet minister in Doug Ford's government," Stiles said, surrounded by supporters. "Bonnie Crombie doesn't want to get rid of Doug Ford. Bonnie Crombie wants to be Doug Ford."
Crombie shot back the next day, flanked by supporters in her campaign office in Mississauga. She didn't mention Stiles or the NDP by name, instead focusing on policy differences.
"Well, that leader does not have a very serious plan," she said. "We will have the most robust platform."
Liberals, NDP had similar vote share in 2022
In the 2022 election, neither party was able to eke out a lead over the other, each finishing with just over 23 per cent of the vote share. But the concentration of those votes in ridings across the province saw the NDP win 31 seats and form the Official Opposition, while the Liberals secured eight seats, short of the 12 needed to gain official party status.
Trent University political studies professor Cristine de Clercy said the campaign is already shaping up to be a tough fight between the parties, and one will need to peel support from the other to compete with Ford's PCs.
"I think all elections test bases of support and the reality is, that particularly in Ontario, the Liberals and the New Democrats share a lot of the same sorts of supporters," she said.
"So fundamentally, this is a contest for base."
NDP strategist Mélanie Richer, a principal at Earnscliffe Strategies, was part of the Ontario campaign in 2022. She said her biggest message to her party was that they needed to remove the Liberals as a viable option as early as possible in the campaign.
"If you haven't done that, the story throughout the election, like we saw in 2022 is, will it be the NDP? Will it be the Liberals?" she said. "And then Doug Ford's kind of hanging out by himself."
David Herle, a partner at Rubicon Strategies, said neither party was able to present themselves as a "credible challenger" to Ford in the last election and that meant the anti-PC vote was split. Herle, who was co-chair of the 2014 and 2018 Ontario Liberal campaigns, said he has run into pitfalls in trying to deliver a nuanced message that woos NDP voters.
Launching attacks on the NDP can often backfire, driving away the party's base, he said.
"Liberal voters do not like it when the Liberal Party attacks the NDP because the NDP are seen by Liberal voters as people that probably shouldn't govern, but are well intentioned," he said. "When the Liberal campaign goes hard at them, they actually repel Liberal voters."
Herle said the Liberals need to offer a viable campaign with policies that appeal to NDP voters. He points to former premier Kathleen Wynne's supplement to the Canada Pension Plan in 2014 as an example.
"The NDP really suffered because people found the Liberal project attractive, both as a way to stop the Conservatives and as a way to advance a progressive policy agenda," he said.
Attacks, appeals coming early: experts
Liberal strategist Charles Bird said he thinks Stiles's direct attacks so early in the race could be a mistake and risk turning off voters. Typically, these kinds of attacks come late in an election, he said.
"It seems a bit misplaced, if not maybe a smidge desperate for the NDP to be playing that card," he said. "By contrast Bonnie Crombie has been focused squarely on health care … and that really goes to the question about the progressive primary."
Richer said the NDP are trying to emphasize their competitiveness not just against the Liberals, but also in ridings held by the PCs in the early days of the campaign. That will illustrate they're the true alternative to Ford's Tories, she said.
"The importance is to position yourself as the person who's going up against the premier and not to spend all your time talking about who's going to come in second place," she said.
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