Expect Doug Ford to use Windsor as campaign backdrop, political scientist says

Ontario Progressive Conservative leader Doug Ford will launch his election campaign in Windsor Wednesday.

And a political scientist at the University of Windsor says she expects him to make the border city a prominent backdrop for his campaign.

Ford has called it a "campaign to protect Ontario" as he attempts to position himself as the best candidate to defend the province's interests in the face of American tariff threats and steer its economy through the potential devastation to follow.

He has benefited from being able to "fill the vacuum" in national leadership left by Justin Trudeau's resignation at a time when Canada is facing economic threats from south of the border, said Lydia Miljan.

"He's in the biggest economy of the country, and he's the chair of the premiers' caucuses," Miljan said.

"A lot of the meetings have happened in Ontario, so he's really been at the centre of a governmental response to the potential tariffs. And so his battles with Danielle Smith, his disagreements with Alberta, played well to a local audience."

PCs could look to Windsor West seat

At the same time, Miljan said, the auto sector is vulnerable to the Trump administration's decision to back away from its commitment to electrification and to battling climate change, so the snap election seems like an attempt by Ford to prevent the fallout from those actions from affecting his reelection prospects.

Ford will hold a roundtable with Unifor Local 444 and visit workers at Harbour Technologies, a local manufacturer, during his stop in Windsor.

He has said he needs a strong mandate to lead the province through the uncertainty brought by the potential U.S. tariffs.

And there's one way to strengthen his mandate in Windsor-Essex, Chatham-Kent and Sarnia: by targeting Windsor West NDP MPP Lisa Gretzky, the only non-PC MPP in the region.

"I think she is vulnerable in part because the NDP's leader, Marit Stiles, really hasn't gotten great name recognition in Ontario," Miljan said.

"Election campaigns tend to be leader-focused," she added. And Doug Ford "really is sort of taking all the oxygen out of the room."

But Gretzky came out swinging at a news conference Tuesday morning, accusing Ford of spending up to $200 million on an election that could be used to pay for services people need. 

"We have a mental health and addictions crisis, a homelessness crisis," Gretzky said.

"We have record numbers of people going to food banks," she said. "We have tariff threats coming from the United States and the only premier in the entire country who thinks that now is the good time [to] go to an election."

On Tuesday evening, the Ontario PC website listed Tony Francis as the candidate in Windsor West. 

Francis is a director of the Windsor West PC riding association who has a background as a steel mill engineer. 

The 2022 election saw the lowest voter turnout in Ontario history, Miljan said, and the winter election will only make it more challenging to get people to the ballot box. 

"You want people who are willing to go through a snowstorm … to get out and cast their ballot," Miljan said. "It's kind of early to tell what the dynamics of this campaign are going to be."

People tend to be less engaged with provincial politics than federal politics even though provincial politics is "closer to the people," she added, and they're more likely to vote when they want change. 

Who's running so far in the Windsor, Chatham-Kent and Sarnia ridings

As of Wednesday, Jan. 29, at 9 a.m., the NDP, Ontario Liberals and Green Party have yet to announce of their candidates in the region.

Windsor West

• Lisa Gretzky - NDP (incumbent)

• Tony Francis - PC

Windsor—Tecumseh

• Andrew Dowie - PC (incumbent)

• Gemma Grey-Hall - NDP

Essex

• Anthony Leardi - PC (incumbent)

• Rachael Mills - NDP

Chatham-Kent–Leamington

• Trevor Jones - PC (incumbent)

Lambton–Kent–Middlesex 

• Steve Pinsonneault - PC (incumbent)

• Cathy Burghardt-Jesson - LIB

Sarnia-Lambton

• Bob Bailey - PC (incumbent)