Water quality at 5 Windsor-Essex beaches to be predicted by math equation, weather forecasts

Windsor Morning5:48Health unit adding predictive modelling to beach water quality program for this summer

For the first time in many years, changes are coming to the way water quality is monitored at local beaches.

The Windsor-Essex County Health Unit (WECHU) is implementing an added water testing tool.

A predictive method uses a math equation to project bacteria levels. 

Along with the normal, routine weekly samples taken at eight area beaches, the health unit will also be using the new predictive model at five of them. 

The older routine testing will still take precedence over the new predictive modelling results when determining beach closures. It starts Wednesday and runs until the end of August.

The health unit says the goal of the predictive model is to give the public more information to make timely decisions on which beaches to go to, based on the quality of the water.

Routine sampling is limited in its surveillance, with testing taking place only on Wednesdays — and results not coming back and being posted until Fridays.

"Weather quality can change often, and it depends mainly on the weather conditions," said Jenny Tan, program manger for environmental health at WECHU.

Tan says her team built its own math equation to predict bacteria levels to supplement routine sampling, in hopes of reducing the incidence of water-borne illnesses.

"The model takes into consideration several environmental factors, such as beach water clarity (turbidity) and weather conditions to generate a predictive result," she said.

The new voluntary program is being used at the following five beaches:

• Sandpoint Beach.

• Lakeshore Lakeview Park West Beach.

• Point Pelee North West Beach.

• Colchester Beach.

• Holiday Beach.

Results will be calculated every weekday — and posted the same day on WECHU's website. They can also be found by calling the health unit's beach information hotline at 519-258-2146 (extension 1490).

The predictive model results will be displayed based on a low-to-moderate-to-high risk level. Routine sample results at beaches will continue to be shown as open, with a warning, or closed.