The conclave that will elect a new pope is more diverse. Will it also be more unpredictable?
Pope Francis broke with tradition and appointed more cardinals from the 'peripheries'
Shepherding the flock may be the classic Christian ideal of leadership, but when the conclave opens on Wednesday to choose a new pope for the Roman Catholic Church, forging consensus among the cardinals could prove more akin to herding cats.
Pope Francis, who died on April 21 at the age of 88, stacked the College of Cardinals with outsiders — men from distant dioceses such as Brunei, Mongolia and South Sudan, countries that had never before had a "Prince of the Church." Many of his appointees have little or no Vatican experience and even less familiarity with one another.
As a result, say some Vatican observers, the upcoming conclave — with its secret voting inside the Sistine Chapel — could prove to be both unpredictable and protracted.
"Any talk about a short conclave is just covering up the fact the cardinals don't want to give the impression of a fractious church," said veteran writer and Vatican observer Marco Politi.
With 135 cardinal electors — those under 80 are eligible to vote — the college has swollen to its largest size in recent years, though a few will be absent due to illness or other constraints.
In keeping with his vision of a church that embraces "the peripheries," Pope Francis reshaped the college into a more globally representative body.
"Francis didn't have many consistories [gatherings] of cardinals, so there were fewer occasions for them to meet compared to the previous popes," Massimo Faggioli, a church historian and theologian at Villanova University near Philadelphia, said. "So they are largely strangers. Especially those who come from the peripheries."
'It's going to be a monster conclave'
In the 2013 conclave that elected Jorge Mario Bergoglio, who took the name of Francis, cardinals from Europe made up 52 per cent of the electorate, with smaller representation from Latin America at 16 per cent, North America at 12 per cent, Africa at 10 per cent and Asia-Pacific at 10 per cent.
Today, according to the Vatican Press Office, Europe's representation is down to 39 per cent, while Latin America accounts for 16 per cent, North America 12 per cent, Africa 13 per cent and Asia-Pacific 20 per cent.
Longtime Vatican observer Andrea Vreede said the more meetings the cardinals are able to have before the conclave, the shorter the conclave will likely be.
"It's going to be a monster conclave," she said. "Many of the cardinals know fewer than a dozen, so they'll need time both to get to know each other, but more importantly to assess the front-runners."
Most observers, along with betting agencies, point to seasoned insider and Vatican Secretary of State Cardinal Pietro Parolin as the likely front-runner. The Italian is seen as a trusted hand and someone who could unite a fractured electorate simply by being the familiar face in the room.
"Parolin would be a continuity choice," Vreede said. "But he's never been a pastor. He's a product of the Curia [the Vatican administration] and a diplomat. He's kind and gentle, but a bit boring."
The 70-year-old Parolin is also not in great health, which could ironically work in his favour: A shorter papacy is seen as less risky by those seeking a transitional figure.
Two other Italians — Archbishop of Bologna Matteo Zuppi, 70, and Pierbattista Pizzaballa, 60, the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem — are also considered strong contenders. Both are steeped in church history, grasp the Curia's inner workings and are skilled in the Italian art of concertazione, a nuanced form of political compromise.
But longtime Vatican observer Giovanna Chirri cautions against a potential Italian bias influencing predictions.
"I remember with the conclave that elected Bergoglio, the Italian press was convinced it would be Cardinal Angelo Scola," she said. "They all had their 'Scola is pope' headlines ready, with one network broadcasting their congratulations to Scola before they had time to correct it."
Geography, ideology to play a role
Along with the mutual unfamiliarity of the voting cardinals, the broadened geographic and ideological spread of the college has introduced new layers of complexity to this conclave, Vatican observers say.
While some cardinals — particularly from Asia and Africa — hold more conservative views on issues like 2SLGBTQ+ rights and the role of women in the church, others, especially recent appointees from Latin America and parts of Europe, lean more progressive. This diversity of perspectives makes consensus harder to forge, Marco Politi said.
"This is the most dramatic conclave of the last 50 years," he said. "The reality of this globally spreading church is that it has split into regional differences. The 1.4 billion Catholics are no longer 'Romanized' as they once were. It was once inconceivable that a cardinal didn't speak Italian, the same way the head of NATO must speak English, but that's not the case anymore."
Geopolitics is likely to weigh more heavily in this conclave than in those past. Ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza, the continuation of Francis's outreach to the Muslim world and mounting concerns over rising autocracy in the United States are all expected to shape the cardinals' deliberations.
If the electors opt for a pope from one of the church's growth regions — such as Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines, often dubbed the "Asian Francis" — it would signal a desire to carry forward Francis's reformist legacy. But it could also heighten geopolitical tensions, with powers like China and India potentially seeking to exert more influence over church decisions, including the appointment of bishops, church historian Faggioli said.
Often mentioned as the second-most plausible candidate after Italy's Parolin, Tagle, 67, has stood out for his theological openness, talent and warmth as a pastor — underscored by recently revived video capturing his enthusiasm for karaoke.
"Everyone knows Tagle, and he has a good chance if they want to continue the pro-active, robust leadership style of Francis," said Philip Pullella, who served as Vatican correspondent for Reuters for more than four decades. "He's got a lot of style and speaks all kinds of languages — perfect Italian, English, Spanish, Tagalog, and has Chinese heritage on his mother's side."
Another possible outcome is the cardinals landing on someone entirely unexpected — less a chosen successor than a dark-horse compromise, as happened with the election of Poland's Cardinal Karol Wojtyła, who became Pope John Paul II almost five decades ago.
Congolese Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, 65, the influential archbishop of Kinshasa and president of the African bishops' conference, has become a key voice for the continent's fast-growing and socially conservative church. He's not seen as a real contender for the papacy, Vreede said, but his successful push in 2024 for an African exemption on allowing same-sex blessings underscores his clout among African electors and the weight they could carry in the conclave.
The least likely outcome, say observers, is a conservative rising through the ranks, despite a social media campaign to smear Francis's legacy, Politi said. Hungarian Cardinal Péter Erdő, 72, has the backing of some of the American hardliners who were ferocious critics of Pope Francis. But the group remains a vocal minority without much sway, observers say.
Faggioli said that given the shape and size of this College of Cardinals, any outcome is possible.
"Even with a large majority of the cardinals chosen by Francis, that is no guarantee the one who succeeds him will be like him."
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