NHL season preview: Calgary Flames
Johnny Hockey gets his contract, but goaltending may decide season
This is part of our series of season previews for the seven Canadian-based NHL teams. We've also covered Montreal, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Vancouver, Ottawa and Toronto.
Calgary Flames
2015-16 record: 35-40-7 (77 points), 5th out of 7 in Pacific Division, missed playoffs.
Key off-season additions: G Brian Elliott, F Troy Brouwer, F Alex Chiasson, G Chad Johnson, F Matthew Tkachuk.
Key off-season subtractions: G Karri Ramo, G Jonas Hiller, G Joni Ortio, F Joe Colborne, F Josh Jooris, F Mason Raymond.
Probability of winning the Cup*: 2.0%
Probability of making the playoffs**: 45.9%
*derived from betting odds posted by Pinnacle
**derived from betting odds posted by Bodog
Last season's story
On the surface, this looked promising: a team with talented young forwards — including a pair of budding superstars in Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan — and a strong blue-line — anchored by veteran Norris candidate Mark Giordano and youngsters T.J. Brodie and Dougie Hamilton — coming off a surprise run to the second round of the playoffs. But those looking at the underlying numbers saw the storm coming: the 2014-15 Flames were a bad possession team that capitalized on a soft division and a favourable playoff matchup.
Calgary's bill came due in a 2015-16 season sabotaged by horrific goaltending. The Flames posted the league's worst 5-on-5 save percentage, wasting a brilliant 30-goal, 78-point sophomore effort by Gaudreau, 27 goals by Monahan, and another fine season by Giordano, who scored 21 times and stayed healthy for the first time since lockout-shortened 2013. How bad were Calgary's goalies? Consider: none of the four who suited up last year (Karri Ramo, Jonas Hiller, Joni Ortio, Niklas Backstrom) is currently employed by an NHL team.
The off-season
Also out of a job is Bob Hartley, who was canned (and eventually replaced by one-time Dallas bench boss Glen Gulutzan) in May, when he was still the reigning NHL coach of the year. On the ice, the obvious priority for GM Brad Treliving and un-Windsored president Brian Burke was overhauling the crease. To that end, they traded a pair of picks to St. Louis for Brian Elliott and signed Chad Johnson, who played admirably for a bad Buffalo team last season, to back him up. Elliott put up good numbers with the Blues (.930 save percentage last season) but Ken Hitchcock's team makes life easy for its goalies. In previous stops with Colorado and Ottawa, .909 was the best Elliott could muster for a season.
To boost the forward unit, Calgary signed gritty Troy Brouwer to a four-year, $18-million US deal and drafted high-scoring Matthew Tkachuk (yes, Keith's son), who's battling for a spot on the roster.
Dream scenario
Johnny Hockey signs a lucrative, but fair, long-term deal in time for opening night [Update: he did on Monday] and moves into the top five in the scoring race (he finished seventh last season), with Monahan not far behind and 20-year-old Sam Bennett improving on his 18-goal rookie year; Giordano stays healthy again and posts Norris-calibre numbers; Elliott proves he's not just a system goalie; the Flames return to the playoffs in the loaded West.
Nightmare scenario
Gaudreau doesn't live up to his new deal; Monahan is bothered by the back problem that caused him to skip the World Cup; Giordano's injury troubles resurface; Elliott withers outside the friendly confines of St. Louis; Calgary limps to another playoff-less season.