NHL season preview: Winnipeg Jets
Top-end talent is there, but will goaltending ground them?
This is part of our series of season previews for the seven Canadian-based NHL teams. We've also covered Montreal, Edmonton, Calgary, Vancouver, Ottawa and Toronto.
Winnipeg Jets
2015-16 record: 35-39-8 (78 points), 7th out of 7 in Central Division, missed playoffs.
Key off-season additions: F Patrik Laine, F Shawn Matthias, D Brian Strait.
Key off-season subtractions: None.
Probability of winning the Cup*: 2.7%
Probability of making the playoffs**: 50.0%
*derived from betting odds posted by Pinnacle
**derived from betting odds posted by Bodog
Last season's story
Despite being swept by Anaheim in the 2015 playoffs, the Jets came into 2015-16 on a current of good feelings after delivering post-season hockey back to the NHL's most deserving fans for the first time in two decades. Winnipeg had produced elite possession numbers, and the Evander Kane-induced headaches were long gone after the leisure-wear enthusiast's trade to Buffalo the previous February.
But nothing will get you reaching for the ibuprofen like shaky goaltending, and Winnipeg's team 5-on-5 save percentage fell from ninth in 2014-15 to 23rd as Ondrej Pavelec regressed to the sub-par netminder he's been most of his career. A .904 mark from your lead guy can kill you in the brutal Central Division, even with a career 78-point year by Blake Wheeler and 29 goals from rising star Mark Scheifele. With the Jets two elders in line for new contracts and their playoff hopes fading in February as their possession rate slipped from great to merely good, management elected to re-up defenceman Dustin Byfuglien and trade away captain Andrew Ladd before the deadline.
The off-season
The low-budget Jets (only three teams have more cap space, according to capfriendly.com) once again pretty much sat out the summer, perhaps seeing No. 2 overall draft pick Patrik Laine as their big-ticket acquisition. You don't want to ask too much of someone who will still be a teenager at this time next year, but Laine is a big (6-4, 206), confident guy who had 33 points in 46 games as a pro last year in Finland, where he opened the season as a 17-year-old. He introduced himself to a wider audience at May's world championship, winning tournament MVP honours and leading his country all the way to the final.
There's a cloud hanging over the blue-line as Jacob Trouba and the team have been unable to agree on a new contract for the restricted free agent. With GMs loath to sign another team's RFA to an offer sheet — whether for fear of violating some unwritten rule of etiquette, or of paying the punishing compensation should the player's team elect to let him go — Trouba has requested a trade. A former top-10 draft pick who's still only 22 could fetch a decent return, but it's discouraging when a team that has so much trouble attracting good players can't hold onto a potential one of its own.
Dream scenario
Connor Hellebuyck (23 years old, team-best .918 save percentage in 26 starts last year) takes the starting job and runs with it; Wheeler remains his productive, durable self; Scheifele grows into the team's top scorer; Laine and 19-year-old Hobey Baker finalist Kyle Connor make immediate impacts as rookies; the Jets send their fans out shopping for white shirts in April.
Nightmare scenario
Hellebuyck or Michael Hutchinson can't challenge Pavelec, who has another bad year but remains the No. 1 goalie for lack of an enticing option; Trouba is traded for 70 cents on the dollar; Scheifele flattens out; Laine struggles to adjust to the NHL grind; the Jets can't get out of the basement in hockey's toughest division. When you don't change much, it's tough to expect much different results