NHL season preview: Edmonton Oilers
McDavid needs help to lead team out of wilderness
This is part of our series of season previews for the seven Canadian-based NHL teams. We've also covered Montreal, Winnipeg, Calgary, Vancouver, Ottawa and Toronto.
Edmonton Oilers
2015-16 record: 31-43-8 (70 points), 7th out of 7 in Pacific Division, missed playoffs.
Key off-season additions: D Adam Larsson, F Milan Lucic, F Jesse Puljujarvi, F Kris Versteeg, G Jonas Gustavsson, D Mark Fraser.
Key off-season subtractions: F Taylor Hall, F Lauri Korpikoski.
Probability of winning the Cup*: 2.5%
Probability of making the playoffs**: 43.1%
*derived from betting odds posted by Pinnacle
**derived from betting odds posted by Bodog
Last season's story
The start of the Connor McDavid era hit a speed bump when the rookie sensation broke his collarbone in his 13th NHL game, costing him three months and, ultimately, the Calder Trophy. But he returned with a flourish and finished with 48 points in 45 games. Before McDavid, the last rookie to crack the point-per-game mark was Evgeni Malkin, back in 2006-07.
So the NHL's second-youngest team found its franchise player, but that wasn't enough to prevent the Oilers from missing the playoffs for the 10th year in a row, and finishing last in their division for the sixth time in that span. Only the unabashedly tanking Maple Leafs had fewer points than Edmonton, but the Oilers — to the delight of the rest of the hockey world — sank to No. 4 in the draft lottery, missing out on a chance to pick top prospects Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine.
The off-season
After years of using high-end draft picks on forwards (and seeing it blow up in their face) the Oilers finally made a bold move to address their imbalance — and were roundly skewered for it. The June 29 swap of top scorer Taylor Hall, 24, for Devils defenceman Adam Larsson was a stunner. Adding a 23-year-old, former No.4-overall draft pick may seem like a good way to patch your chronically leaky blue-line, but the move cost Edmonton dearly. Hall has already reached the 26-goal mark three times in his young career, and the Oilers were a positive possession team at 5-on-5 when he was on the ice last year while being well into the red overall.
Two days after shipping away Hall, the Oilers paid top dollar for a winger to replace him, handing free-agent bruiser Milan Lucic a seven-year, $42-million US deal — identical to what they gave Hall in the summer of 2012. Edmonton then used the fourth-overall draft pick to take forward Jesse Puljujarvi, who played in Finland's pro league the last two years.
Dream scenario
A healthy McDavid (this is his team now) challenges for the scoring title as he and new linemates Lucic, 28, and Jordan Eberle, 26, form one of the league's most exciting forward units; Leon Draisatl, 20, solidifies his status as a fine No. 2 centre; Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, still only 23, raises his game to give Edmonton an excellent 1-2-3 punch down the middle; Larsson anchors an improved defence; Cam Talbot, who had a non-terrible .917 save percentage last season, plays over his head like he did with the Rangers two years ago; the Oilers pull a 2014-15 Calgary and grab a surprise playoff spot in the Pacific after one of the three powerful California teams falters.
Nightmare scenario
McDavid's fellow forwards don't pull their weight; Larsson (69 points in 274 NHL games) fails to make an impact on a thin blue-line; the goaltending folds under pressure; the Oilers finish last in the Pacific again and miss the playoffs for the 11th year in a row while Hall enjoys a career year in Jersey and the draft lottery doesn't go Edmonton's way.