Provincial budget to be tabled Wednesday amid tariff chaos, Liberal leadership race

Newfoundland and Labrador's provincial budget is generally among the biggest political events of the year, but a trade war, a Liberal leadership race and a federal election are casting a long shadow over this year's fiscal plan.

The budget, which provincial Finance Minister Siobhan Coady will unveil on Wednesday, comes less than a month before Premier Andrew Furey will make his exit, and a new premier — either John Hogan or John Abbott — will take his place.

Political scientist Alex Marland says the premier still has the chance to put his stamp on this year's budget.

"He could put forward ideas that end up being legacy pieces for himself. But there's no question what he's probably unlikely to do is do anything that will really make things difficult for his successor," Marland said in an interview with CBC Radio's The St. John's Morning Show.

The budget lands in the middle of a federal election, which itself is under the shadow of the ongoing trade war with the United States — and the possibility of an economic recession.

"It's going to be very hard to sustain public interest when everybody is consumed about what's happening in the United States. It's just the reality of things. Or even what's happening in Ottawa," Marland said.

Still, Marland said, the ongoing economic uncertainty — and an upcoming provincial election — means the 2025 budget likely won't be hard on the wallet.

"It would be almost tone deaf of any government in this country to move forward with a budget that doesn't recognize that the public is experiencing economic distress," he said.

According to data from the University of Toronto, Newfoundland and Labrador had the highest rate of severe food insecurity in Canada in 2023 — with 26 per cent of people having difficulty accessing food.

Josh Smee, CEO of Food First N.L., says Newfoundland and Labrador is doing more to address poverty than some other provinces — with a caveat.

"It's still not enough to make a big enough dent in this," he said.

For several years, Food First N.L., along with other advocacy organizations, have been asking the provincial government to index social support programs to inflation, but that hasn't happened yet.

"It's a hard thing to bring into a conversation because it's a little bit … technical or academic," he said. "But it actually makes a huge difference."

Uncertainty: word of the year?

U.S. President Donald Trump announced new reciprocal tariffs on countries around the world last week, but eased back on Canada.

Jessica McCormick, president of the Newfoundland and Labrador Federation of Labour (NLFL), says she breathed a sigh of relief, but is still bracing for what could come next.

"We're getting a bit of a reprieve from the most immediate and direct impacts, but I don't think anybody is genuinely thinking that we're on the other side of this," she said.

McCormick said the fallout from the U.S.-Canada trade war was a central theme in the NLFL's provincial budget submission, which asks the government to develop a workforce strategy for megaprojects like Churchill Falls, invest in public services and continue holding roundtable discussions on the response to the tariffs.

"We need our governments to show leadership and have a clear plan for how we're going to support working people in this province to alleviate … those cost of living pressures that people were already facing," she said.

So far Newfoundland and Labrador hasn't experienced job losses seen in other parts of the country, but Rhonda Tulk-Lane, CEO of the Atlantic Chamber of Commerce, says business owners are still grappling with uncertainty.

"That's really been, say, the word of the day, the month, the year, and it's a word you don't want to hear when you're working and supporting the business community," she said.

Tulk-Lane said her organization's asks include cutting regulatory red tape, eliminating the payroll tax, reviewing the current tax system and making a plan to get back to a balanced budget.

Last year's budget didn't contain any new taxes, tax increases or fee increases — but government did expect to run a $218 million deficit. 

The deficit before that — the 2023 - 24 fiscal year — was $433 million.

"Businesses have to do it everyday. Citizens have to do it. We have to spend within our means.…Ten out of the last 12 budgets have been deficits. So we really need accountability and fiscal responsibility," Tulk-Lane said.

Coady is scheduled to give her budget speech at 2 p.m. NT on Wednesday.

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