Summer weather outlook suggests Atlantic Canadians will be looking for shade

Environment and Climate Change Canada's summer seasonal weather outlook was released on Tuesday, and Atlantic Canada is likely looking at some hot times. 

Scientists explaining the outlook to journalists on a webinar said there is a high likelihood of warmer-than-normal temperatures across most of Canada for June, July and August, including all of Atlantic Canada. The likelihood of the summer being drier than usual is also heightened, but by not as much. 

"There's not a very good batting average on the precipitation outlook when it comes to seasonal outlooks," said CBC Prince Edward Island meteorologist Jay Scotland, who was on the call.  

He said the temperature outlooks tend to be more on target, and "we are looking at a very high probability, over 90 per cent, of a warmer than normal June, July and August" in Atlantic Canada.

"That not does not mean the day-to-day weather ... You cannot rule out some cooler stretches," Scotland added. "But when we average it out, the temperature's expected to be above the 30-year average."

The main reason for that is human-induced climate change, Scotland said, though a positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is another contributing factor. 

"We've seen a 1.8-degree rise in Canada's average summer temperature since 1948, which is almost twice the global average increase. And when you head up into higher latitudes like the Arctic, it's even higher than that."

The prospect of the summer being drier as well as hotter is less certain. 

"We do often worry about not just agriculture, but the fire risk, so Environment and Climate Change Canada also covered the chance for a heightened fire season," Scotland said.

June and July look to be normal on that front, he said. August is a different matter.

"There is a tilt toward drier-than-average conditions for all of P.E.I. and Nova Scotia as well as eastern New Brunswick and parts of Newfoundland. Much of Labrador is tilting toward wetter conditions, but the confidence is fairly low on this precipitation outlook. 

Heat illness is, of course, always the biggest threat when it comes to warmer than normal temperatures.— Jay Scotland

"If that does come to fruition with the warmer temperatures, obviously that means drier vegetation and you're increasing your fire risk."

He advised Atlantic Canadians to pay attention to fire bans and follow the rules when it comes to controlled burning and campfires. 

"Heat illness is, of course, always the biggest threat when it comes to warmer than normal temperatures," he added. "So you've just got to pay attention to your body, learn the signs of heat illness and act."